Weekly Recap – 11-28-21

Price Action

Weekly Winners - Peak Gain

Weekly Losers - Peak Drop

It has been an interesting week, that’s for sure.  America had Thanksgiving on Thursday, everyone had Black Friday on Friday and then Small Business Saturday and here we are, on Sunday Night.  Needless to say, it was not exactly your normal week in Crypto – is that’s even a thing anyway.

What we did see was a pullback across the board on almost all Majors and Mid-Caps.  Coins like AVAX and SOL dumped all week while some other coins actually did well on Tuesday and Wednesday only to give it all back Thursday to Sunday.

We can see the H6 and the H12 are starting to populate Bear Trend in the heavy red but only ICP and FIL have their Daily red at the moment.  There is certainly the chance that the floors have been swept and everybody is ready for a big December run.  Time will tell, as always.

 

Correlation Matrix

The old school trio are back at it again.  Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin are holding pretty tight correlation with each other.  ETH to BTC sits at a 0.90 while LTC to ETH sits at 0.88.

We expect the majors to tighten up a bit with each other if December is to be a bullish month and then we expect some separation as Alts reach new highs and get exhausted.

Crypto FEAR and GREED

From 50 (Neutral) to 33 (Fear), it’s easy to say the market has shifted quite a bit from a week ago.  Even slight greed can be enough to shake the paper hands and start folding their cards.

As the Fear increases, expect some deals to show up as we will see some discounted Alts but we will likely see the death of some Alts as well.  Once we get a good shakeout – traders are less likely to spread as thin as they were during the run.

Daily Bitcoin Volume

Nobody expected good Volume this week but it was not as bad as some originally thought.  The average volume is actually unchanged for the most part.  Friday was a bloody day as Bitcoin lost $5000 per coin and took the whole market with it.  That was the largest volume candle for the week.  The weekend was pretty lackluster in the volume department.

Bitcoin Dominance

Dominance finally tested Support and found some quite a few times.  Overall we can say that support is holding but it certainly has not been enough to make any kind of difference.  The local trend continues down until Dominance can make its way over the trendline.  If our current level of Support fails this week, we look to the secondary level underneath it.

Bitcoin CME Futures

Exactly what you Never want to see.  The Weekend Warriors got a little too much push just a little too late in the weekend.  This created a fairly significant Gap in the CME Futures chart.  Similar to the Gap that was left at $32,270, there is a chance Bitcoin rises from here and leaves the Gap for the short-term future.  Unfortunately, that is usually Not the Case.

CME likes to fill these gaps right away, if not the very next day then the day after.  We still have room to go South for Bitcoin and it would not at all be surprising if Futures tried to lead the charge down to the trend and fill the gap in the process.

Bitcoin Monthly Red/Green

The Whales have a lot of work ahead of them if they are trying to close out November Green.  Last November we were up 42% and this November we are currently down 6%.  So, it’s not difficult to reach the amount needed to close green but it’s difficult to get through this area of resistance that has proven to be a lot for the Bulls to handle.  

A close above $61,347 would put the month of November in the green by a few pennies.  Bitcoin hasn’t seen $61K since November 16th, the day Bitcoin dropped from $63K – $58K.

For the last year, since last October, we are looking at:

6 UP and then 

3 DOWN and then

2 UP and then 

1 DOWN and then

1 UP…

Bitcoin Weekly S/R

Bitcoin has officially lost the $58-60K Support Zone on the Weekly Chart.  Even worse is the retest that we saw earlier was a convergence resistance area that immediately took the Bulls down.  This does not mean that its all over but it is looking better and better for the Bears every week now for two weeks.  

The other bad news is that the low point wick that was bought up was not low enough for support.  This means there are still plenty of whales down there that would like to see $52-48K before any kind of run up.

Conclusion

It would not be uncommon to be a little uneasy when things get a little too quiet.  Somebody out there knows something and everyone is a bit too tightlipped to let it leak out.  

Bitcoin was recently in a short-lived ranged area until it completely broke south with a single $5000 candle downward.  Now we can see that Saturday and Sunday created momentum with thin books.  This is more of an illusion than anything else.  We will see the truth today when everyone is back at their trading desks for the first time since last Wednesday.  The good news about that is Tuesday and Wednesday were bounce days off the prior low.  At that point they were successfully defending $56K and we are currently at $57K.  The idea that they may just try to continue where they left off on Wednesday is not out of the realm of possibility.

We still have room to go South if we really want to mimic the earlier leg and test the trendline out for Support.  This is not necessary but you know their are buyers down there.  As of now, we look to see the trend tested as Support and the Upper Resistance all the way into the $64K area.

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