Weekly Recap – 11-13-22

Top 5 by MCAP

Although this recap is mostly all about Bitcoin, it’s still important to discuss the overall health of the Top 5, as numbers 2-5 do have sway in the altcoin world.  

This week was BRUTAL, and I’m not just talking about the 20%+ decline in Bitcoin. This week was the week of the beginning of the end of FTX. FTX will single-handedly be responsible for the short-term demise of all of Crypto and the burial of many projects, VCs, investors, and traders. What they did was so disgusting that it makes Mt. Gox and Silk Road look like Christmas presents. Anyway, before this article turns into an op-ed that no one ever asked for, let’s get into the mat of the week.

Bitcoin Monthly - Long-Term

All you need to do is look at the Long-Term Monthly chart to get a sense of what comes after losing the $20K support that we have been leaning on for the last 6 months. The next major level on everyone’s radar is $14K, after that, $10K and then believe it or not $6-$8K has some attention. We show a lot of similarities from the 2018 dump in which we consolidated for months around $5-6K only to finally lose support at the drop to $3120. If we consider $20K to be a similar area of interest as we saw in 2018 then we can hypothesize that $10K would be the floor.

Bitcoin Weekly - Mid-Term

Last Tuesday was the 1-Year Anniversary of the Bitcoin ATH at $69,000. In 2017, it was almost exactly a year cycle that went from $20K down to $3K. This time, on that week, we not only broke the June low that we have been resting on for 6-months, but we breached the last major level of Support until $14K, or the Failure of June 2019. To confuse matters further, we see that the exact area where support was found was actually the retest of the major Swing-Fail trend breakout that we saw 4 weeks ago. This puts traders in a very uneasy situation. Based on Support and Resistance, you not only have a reason to long, but you also have a reason to short. Short because you broke the major $20K support zone or long because you have retested the Swing-Fail trendline as support. In the case we are in now, the local support will likely take the weight, and therefore we expect further downside.

Bitcoin Daily - Short-Term

With the failure of the local trend lower than the Swing-Fail of the main recovery pullback, the next steps are being laid out right in front of us. The downtrend continuation takes back over as the uptrend invalidation plagues the Bulls. Support levels are still the 2019 Swing-Fail High near $14K and then a host of levels in the $10-12K zone. 

The most recent action looks like an isolated Dead-Cat-Bounce and then would spell disaster for the week ahead. If we are at all lucky, the market will shed all of its fear before Thanksgiving, and we can enjoy the next few months recovering. The process of actually bottoming out and knowing that you’ve bottomed out does not become apparent until you have already established the low and started trading up.

Daily Bitcoin Volume

We saw some extreme volatility over the last week, and we broke the 2022 ATH Volume not once, not twice, but THREE TIMES all in the same week. The highest high not only broke the recent 2022 ATH but also broke the 2021 ATH at the same time. In a single day, 119,634,000 Bitcoins were traded. That is an absolutely insane amount of Volume flowing through a single exchange. That exchange, as a refresher, is Coinbase. Needless to say, the lower trendline did indeed hold as support as we saw the volume average shoot up over the upper trendline because of all the action from last week.

Bitcoin Dominance

The most consistent chart, besides CME Futures, in all of Crypto is this Bitcoin Dominance chart. The Support holds as Support, and the Resistance holds as Resistance. All joking aside, Dominance did fail to break through the overhead resistance on its last attempt in October and is now digging its heels in Support near 40% and looking for another miracle at these levels. This support zone is very sloppy, so there is not a very clear signal that it’s been invalidated. Judging by the rest of the market, we may see it stabilize here for a bit if the rumors of a massive ALT sell-off are true.

Bitcoin CME Futures

The GAP has been FILLED. On Friday, November 20, 2020, Bitcoin dropped $2250 by the time the CME Futures market closed. The following Monday, Bitcoin shot up $2850 marking a massive separation from the Friday close. Even worse, over the weekend, while the CXME market was closed, Bitcoin was recovering from the $2K loss and therefore opened up on Sunday Night at $18,275. This is a jump of $1350 from the Friday close. This gap was only filled just the other day when Bitcoin dropped $3600 in a single day and filled the gap perfectly. A lesson and a curse that these gaps tend to get filled at such a high percentage rate because we have cleared all the local gaps down and the next one to consider is all the way down at $11K.


If we consider the price action as either a Dead-Cat-Bounce or a Bear Pennant, on a smaller timeframe like the H4 or H1 then we can theorize that another move down equal to about $6K could be in the cards for Bitcoin at the area of invalidation for the very local recovery bounce. This would drop Bitcoin to the mid $10K range. This may make a lot of people upset but I’d prefer to rip the band-aid off, send SBF to jail for eternity, and shake-out a ton of the ultra-dead and scam projects that are out there so that we can come back bigger and stronger than ever before.

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