Weekly Recap – 11-06-22
Top 5 by MCAP
Total Market Cap is back over $1 Trillion and that is only one piece of the news for today. The last week brought in a lot of buzz around both traditional and crypto markets. The Altcoin market specifically was highlighted on Thursday with our State of the Alts article. Today we will focus on Bitcoin and what the last week of price action has brought to the table.
Bitcoin Monthly - Long-Term
October finished GREEN. August and September were both red months but after those two months of selling, we finished off on Halloween with a bullish month. Before we get too excited, remember where we are in the long-term chart. That downward move in June is what we are always up against. Might as well include the sell-off in May as well. As we trade, we are still sideways but a green month is a welcome change of pace and will help traders and investors look to bitcoin more in the coming weeks than they did for the last two months.
Bitcoin Weekly - Mid-Term
Last Week gave us a Spinning Top as far as the weekly candle is concerned. The takeaways here are the following:
1: Bitcoin closed the weekly above $20K
2: Bitcoins peak low in size was very similar to its peak gain
3: The actual body close was a 1.34% positive gain from the open
4: This is the 3rd green weekly candle in a row – we haven’t seen that since $69K.
Though we still remain under the main area of resistance, and the weekly is showing more or less sideways action, the word on the street is that Bitcoin is starting to enter the chat logs once again. In a bear market, you only need a few days or weeks of NOT SELLING, and all of a sudden, people start turning bullish again.
Bitcoin Daily - Short-Term
Although it doesn’t look like much on the weekly, there are some important observations on the daily to take notice of. The resistance zone overhead that we have spoken about recently was very much a factor last week. This was a needed break from the two-day pump and helped to calm the market down a bit. After five days of selling off, Bitcoin put in almost $1000 candle. This was a test to the top of the zone. It was rejected once it got there but it got there nonetheless. After two more days of testing the topside of the zone, we find ourselves squarely in the zone. The big news this week will be if we break out of the zone and are on target to test the recent lower high from the massive sell-off candle on September 13th.
Daily Bitcoin Volume
Volume has currently been saved by the lower of the two trendlines. This is more of an indication of the overall strength of the current move. The current move in the short-term is sideways and up while the current macro move is still very much down. If we see volume trending up and the action is more or less sideways then we can say that is a pretty good indication of accumulation.
40% was tested and once again, it has provided support and a bounce. Something about the Bitcoin Dominance chart and the respect it sees from these levels is all too interesting. 42% continues to be resistance and 40% continues to be support. With the recent reaction at 40%, we could be seeing a momentum shift to the high side and therefore an attempt later this week to break through the 42% resistance zone.
Bitcoin CME Futures
The Futures market has no major gaps in the current price action, not anymore, that is. Price action is closer to the lower gap than it is to the upper gap, but there is a chance we see the upper gap filled and then head down to fill the lower gap. There is always the possibility that we never fill the lower gap, but, history and probabilities have taught us that they will more likely be filled than left unfilled, especially at those sizes. All daily gaps from the opening of the next candle, as well as the weekend gaps, such as the one earlier today, are getting filled the very next day.
Trends need time but they also need structure. The high that falls into a support area to create a higher-low is incredibly important. Those are the areas that become leading indicators of a reversal of a slowdown in trend acceleration down the road.
The very local trend is up and that is a change from the norm. With that, areas that were once resistance will be tested as resistance again. Flipping a prior area of resistance to a new area of support allows the price to have something to fall back on if things get shaky.
The ideal scenario here is that we break through the $22,800 area with volume and momentum and then we confirm that area has been flipped by testing it as support. If the bulls can manage that this week, we could be setting up for a very interesting few months going into the holidays.
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