Weekly Recap – 10-23-22

Top 5 by MCAP

Very early in the week, and we can already see the late-night Sunday traders trying to make a statement before the overall traditional market wakes up at 9:30 AM EST tomorrow. Last week closed for Bitcoin with an overall positive candle of $306. That is a gain of 1.6%. Compare that with -0.92, +2.02, +1.33, and -3.44, which falls in line with the last 4-weeks of trading. At the end of the day, we are still trading within the same rangebound and sideways area.

Bitcoin Monthly - Long-Term

The coiling up of the daily candles all within a tightening range has some traders on edge as a massive move, in either direction, can potentially explode from this type of price action. October is green for the month so far as we continue to trade on Day 23 but the move needed to make the candle bearish is very small. The bulls are playing on thin ice and they are not making believers in anyone with this type of action. We continue 3/4 of the way through month 5 at the same relative level.

Bitcoin Weekly - Mid-Term

As mentioned earlier in this article, the last week was consistent with the previous 4 weeks. This gives us 5 weeks now with very little action, either up or down and therefore solidifying the rangebound or sideways theories that have been analyzed over the last few months. One thing to keep in mind is the low from June. In the crypto world, some Alts have actually swept this June low as the entire market sold off together, but Bitcoin has not. Even with the larger sell-off two Thursdays ago, Bitcoin still remains well above its June low.

Bitcoin Daily - Short-Term

We are now on Day 128 since the June low, and as mentioned above, we still see Bitcoin trading over that level. The two levels to look for now are a High of $20,479 and a Low of $18,131. These are the validation or invalidation levels for the current local downtrend. Cross over the High, and you have invalidated the local downtrend, and we can look for a potential local reversal and trade under the low and you now have the 8th piece of the downtrend puzzle and look for lower lows to sweep the June low.

Daily Bitcoin Volume

Daily Bitcoin volume has fallen below the upper local trendline for the first time. We had three days of selling in a row as the price dropped from a high of $19,702 down to a low of $18,659. This was enough to break the volume trendline. We do still have the lower, less steep trendline, and we are approaching that as we speak. It would be ideal to hold this trendline, but only if the price remains sideways or goes up; otherwise, a discontinued interest in selling Bitcoin while Bitcoin price continues to drop would be the best thing we could see for a reversal.

Bitcoin Dominance

Surprisingly, Bitcoin Dominance has still failed to break through the overhead resistance area on our Dominance chart. That resistance has now held continuously for around two weeks. The local trend is still up and there is no reason to believe the momentum will be shifting anytime soon, barring any news events or global events that may spark interest or fear, or greed.

Bitcoin CME Futures

After waiting 668 days and many attempts and near misses, Bitcoin CME Futures traders have finally filled one of the two major gaps below $20K. This gap was originally created from the opening candle back on December 14, 2020. The official fill day was the Thursday before last Thursday, October 13th, 2022. We do have another large gap waiting to be filled that was below this large gap. That gap starts at $17,575 and will be completely filled at a low of $16,925.


In conclusion, we are a bit at the “more of the same” attitude than equally bullish or bearish. The overall Macro is still sideways and down but take a look at the recent downward-sloping trendlines. The red is the initial trendline break, which is a big deal but the price only reflected a push for two days. The orange represents yet another downward-sloping trendline of resistance that has also been overcome and even still is the green, which is, yet another trendline that has been broken and is currently being tested as support. This is an extremely early indication that the downward pressure is easing whether it looks like it or not.

What this does not give us is a trend to the high side or any type of clear reversal pattern because all of this action is happening within a fairly confined range. We would need to disrupt the larger local downtrend before we saw any potential.

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