Top 5 by MCAP
Although this recap is mostly all about Bitcoin, it’s still important to discuss the overall health of the Top 5, as numbers 2-5 do have sway in the altcoin world. We are now in the 48th week below the ATH of Bitcoin at $69K. BTC, ETH, BNB, and ADA, or Numbers 1, 2, 3, and 5 respectively by Market Cap are all showing strong Daily downward trends according to the PAS. Only the 4th ranked XRP is trending up strong from the H1 to the H12. There is something to speak about that is extremely important and we will highlight that more on the Weekly and Daily charts. Let’s get started.
Bitcoin Monthly - Long-Term
We have finalized the month of September 9 days ago and we indeed left the month red as we did the month of August. Summer is officially over and besides the small push we saw in July, we are at the same levels we found back in June. BUT… The long-term downward sloping trendline has been breached to the North. More on this as we zoom into the Weekly and Daily.
Bitcoin Weekly - Mid-Term
Our 48-week, verified, downward-sloping Swing-Fail trendline has been breached to the North. Now, the weekly does not paint the same picture as the Daily because on the Weekly we only achieved this by default. Meaning, the reason we are over the trend is only because of the spacing of the candles on the chart and not because the price actually broke out of the trendline. What we can see is actually another denial from last week. That being said, the price is most certainly over the trendline. Be that as it may, long-term traders will likely need at least a week of confirmation before making any kind of moves based on this indication.
Bitcoin Daily - Short-Term
We have 333 Days closed since the ATH but something very special happened only six days ago. On Tuesday, October 4th, 2022, Bitcoin traded over the Swing-Fail trendline from the ATH for the first time. This is a major move for the Bitcoin Bulls as the price has been trading under that resistance trend for a very long time. If you look closely at the chart, you will see the breakout, the resistance on the local previous high, and the 4-day sell-off to the retest of the initial $19,000 – $19,250 Support Zone. Yesterdays candle as well as today’s current candle were during weekend trading, so we really need to see how the market reacts on Monday around 9:30 AM EST to get a better idea of whether traders and investors are feeling good or not about this trendline break. It would not be uncommon for Bitcoin to have a False Break, especially one or two before actually turning around for a rally. Momentum is still very much with the Bears at the moment.
Daily Bitcoin Volume
Take note of the trendline we used for the last few months on daily volume nodes. The angle of the strength has changed. Short-term tells us that we are actively seeing more daily trading volume month over month and week over week. Our original trendline from late July could potentially turn into a secondary area of Support as volume is currently trending on a steeper trend. This is good and bad. The good part is that there is more activity in the markets and more capital is flowing in and out of Bitcoin. The bad news is that the price is not trending upward. This generally means that investors are either accumulating and therefore maintaining price only to the point that allows them to buy more without paying extra or that the selling pressure is dominating the buyers and more people continue to have the urge to sell at these levels.
Bitcoin Dominance continues to struggle under the 42% level. This was a recurring theme not too long ago, but back then, it eventually broke to the North. A massive break to the North could potentially leave Altcoins in the dust. If Bitcoin were to have a massive rally and all capital flowed into Bitcoin, traders would sell Alt positions to ride the wave. There are situations where the entire market can go up together and Bitcoin is simply outpacing everyone else, and therefore enjoys the Dominance boost at the same time.
Bitcoin CME Futures
The Bitcoin CME Futures chart is looking quiet at the moment. The most recent unfilled gap dates back to June 13th, while we were dramatically selling off to reach the June lows. All day to day and Week Close to Week Open gaps have been filled and satisfied. We are extremely close to filling the first of two major gaps below the current price but that area was very well-defended and we have not been able to check those off the list, yet…
Here we can see a better look at the Daily breakout and retest from the ATH-SF-Trendline. We mentioned don’t the Weekly that the level was given by default, and that is true, but only for the Weekly. Once you see the action that makes up that Daily candle, you will indeed see the breakout, as well as the rejection that followed. The important thing here is that the rejection comes AFTER the breakout, and price action remains trading above the trendline at the moment.
This is the single most Bullish thing we have seen from Bitcoin outside of its Swing-Fail rally and the recent moves we had in July. By no means is this a tradeable event without caution, and by no means is this calling a reversal, but this is something to keep an eye on for sure. If the price is to remain above this trend and another confluence is to start shifting to the Bulls, then there would be cause to start taking long-term long positions on Bitcoin, which is something we have not been able to say for a very, very long time.
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