Weekly Recap – 09-04-22
Top 5 by MCAP
The first week of September is more of the same for the entire market. Traders are unsure about global market conditions and changes in monetary policy worldwide. The war in Ukraine lingers on as we begin the winter months on the East Coast.The Feds continue to play their card close to their sleeves while wreaking unrecoverable havoc across the nation that spreads globally faster than the newly advertised Monkeypox.
Here we are with a Crypto Market teetering on a global market cap of just over $1 Trillion, a value that has been halved since its peak last November. We have been in a global downtrend for 10 months, and there is no indefinite sign of reversal at the moment.
Bitcoin Monthly - Long-Term
Bitcoin closed out its monthly candle lower than it opened early on August 1st. This brings us once again to another red month. All things considered, we are still higher than we were from the low in June, and we are now ranging in the $20K zone once again. September has started out red so far. The previous two Septembers you see on this chart were also red months, and there is some history of the global markets and Septembers being referred to as Sell-Off Septembers.
Regardless of any catchy names, the relief rally has finished for now, and all signs point to more sideways action with more probabilities given to further downside as we are still in a downward market.
Bitcoin Weekly - Mid-Term
$21K was an opportunity for the Bulls to step up to the plate and defend the zone that could have ushered in a wave of capital on the buying side. Instead, they failed and they failed miserably. The Bears walked all over them. Their attempt last week to right their wrongs was too little and too late. All this did was empower the Bears even more and give them all the ammo required to make another statement. The ball is in the Bears’ hands at the moment as the Bulls have proven too weak to provide any reasonable gains.
Bitcoin Daily - Short-Term
Will we test the Low from June? Better yet, if/when we do test the Low in June, will it actually provide any relief at all? There is always a potential for a Double Bottom and it would not be unlike Bitcoin to Sweep the Lows and reverse course as far as trends are concerned. The reality at the moment is that we have lost the Daily Uptrend that gave us 10 very good pieces of the puzzle but we are already 5 pieces deep on the Downtrend. Uptrend #7 provided a few days of Support but eventually failed and our current price action isn’t representative of any levels on the way up.
Bitcoin is trending towards our Support Zone but how much weight can we put on a zone when all levels have failed prior to it and the trend has all the momentum to the downside? Bitcoin now needs to trade above $22K to capture the attention of any Bulls and while that is certainly possible on a good day, we haven’t had a lot of good days recently.
Daily Bitcoin Volume
Last week brought us some volatility to the sell side with some decent recovery volume sprinkled in from the buyers. All in all, we remain somewhat consistent in volume as the entire market is trading around $150B+ globally every 24 hours. We are waiting to see if we get a significant shift in volume from either the buyers or the sellers, but as of right now, there is not too much to discuss.
Bitcoin Dominance
Here we are once again in the pivotal ~40% Dominance Zone. We have broken this support in the past but when we have, we saw almost immediate recovery. We are now at the bottom of the zone after spending all week dropping lower and lower. As the ALT market is not in any better shape than bitcoin, a break in this support could lead to a nasty selloff across the board. History has taught us that there are generally some good buying opportunities when these situations come up. All eyes will be peeled this week as we hover near the bottom of this Support Zone.
Bitcoin CME Futures
Futures have been relatively quiet over the last week. Bitcoin Futures have easily closed all Daily Gaps as they were created and have yet to make any dramatic moves either North or South. If the Futures market leans heavily in one direction, the Spot market will likely follow. When we are in a sideways market is when the Futures has the most influence on Spot.
Conclusion
Nine days of trading is far from a range but it helps to visualize when the price has moved above or below what is likely considered the medium at the moment. The Bulls have the most difficult challenge ahead of them as they have been beaten and bruised for the last 10 months. Not only do they need to crawl out of this range, the second they do, they will need to deal with overhead resistance.
Once they break through that, they have even more overhead resistance in the form of an upward-sloping trend that they lost two weeks ago. Even if they are able to accomplish all three of those feats, they need to challenge the previous Lower High and trade above $22K for a few days while flipping previous resistance to support.
On the other hand.. all the Bears need to do is continue riding down the hill without breaks. This is something they have been doing since last November and they have been doing a really good job overall.
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