Weekly Recap – 08-21-22

Top 5 by MCAP

After five straight days of Bitcoins’ very moderate sell-off, we see a 10% Bitcoin Dump candle that rattled the entire market and every Altcoin in it. On August 19th, Bitcoin lost $2354 in a single day, representing a loss of 10.15% of its total value in just 24 hours. To add insult to injury, the five days of moderate losses before the drop totaled an additional $1267 or 5.18%. This brought the 6-day dump from an Open of $24,456 to a Close of $20,834. This was a loss of $3621 or 14.81% in just 6 days. 

Bitcoin Monthly - Long-Term

August has taken a turn for the worst with the recent events of last week. This puts the month at a loss at the moment instead of a gain. Most significant tho, if August was to close green then we would have two green months in a row, something we haven’t seen February-March. August still has well over a week of trading before it closes its doors and ushers in September trading.

Bitcoin Weekly - Mid-Term

Last Week we annihilated our $23,307 level and dropped all the way back to our levels created after the bounce in mid-June. This was enough to break the 5-week trendline and solidified the $24,287 resistance level. What this means now is that when the price reaces above $25K, we can start the talk of retesting structure around $29K, but until then, we are only focused on the next viable area of Weekly Support. We have a level at $21,027 that was tested last week and held as Support. That will be the first focus of support but a rather weak one at best. The next major area of Support comes from our zone at $19,400 – $19,900.

Bitcoin Daily - Short-Term

Our 10-point trend is officially over as our Support at the Higher-Low of “9” was broken. Bitcoin found a bounce and temporary support at the “7” Higher-Low, and a retest of the “9” level is expected before further downside. This means we could see a rally up to the $22,400 area and a drop down into the teens. We do have a trendline now that has been verified thanks to the latest bounce. This now gives us three touches on the trend, which is an origin trend, meaning that the first point of reference dates back to the very beginning of the trend.

Daily Bitcoin Volume

Even with the fairly large dump candle from the 19th, the 30-day average for Bitcoin volume remains pretty consistent. When volume is sideways for an extended period of time, all traders are on the lookout for the next big move, either up or down. If we start to see prices continually declining and the volume increasing simultaneously, we can add more weight to shorts moving forward.

Bitcoin Dominance

Similar to Bitcoin Volume, Bitcoin Dominance is not giving us much to use here for analysis. Dominance is currently sitting in between Support and Resistance, but it has yet to fall as low as the pivotal 40% level just yet. AT this rate, 40% is likely to get tested but with the fall of Bitcoin recently, and the market all shook up over it, it will only delay the 40% test even further as traders sell their riskier positions for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin CME Futures

One tiny gap was filled while another was missed by only a few dollars… $20,915 is the level we are looking for on the CME Futures Chart. With CME Futures not trading on Saturday and most of Sunday, we missed the chance to fill this lower gap that has been haunting this chart for several weeks. Be that as it may, there are many gaps still lower, and if Bitcoin does wind up down there, surely it will take out this tiny gap in the process. The Weekend gap was just filled with the early drop after the opening.

Conclusion

What will come from this market? Too soon to tell, but more downside is where the analysis leads to. If the DXY has anything to say about it, we are in for a fairly brutal reality. That being said, one candle can literally change the minds of millions of people. Never discount the “Giant Dildo” that essentially creates a Bull Market in 24 hours. However, we cannot exactly rely on such a candle to make its way onto the charts. 

Overhead resistance in the $22,500 area will likely be heavily shorted. We will look for additional shorts and heavier volume and interest in shorting Bitcoin. It would be an easy play for the Bulls to trap the shorts and essentially liquidate every last dollar, making the current action nothing more than a Bear Trap. This would not be the first time this has happened. That being said, long aren’t interesting until we are over $25K and shorts are more appealing when we break through this last trendline.

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