Weekly Recap – 08-07-22

Top 5 by MCAP

Although this recap is mostly all about Bitcoin, it’s still important to discuss the overall health of the Top 5 as numbers 2-5 do have sway in the altcoin world.  The H4 is trending strongly on all Top-5 coins at the moment! Even more interesting is Ethereum and BNB are trending strongly on their respective H6 as well, with BNB leading the race for turning the H12 Green. All things considered, Bitcoin is more or less sideways as it starts its new week. This marks four weeks in a row trading near these same levels.

Bitcoin Monthly - Long-Term

Bitcoin Long-Term is very slowly giving traders what they want to see. Traders are looking for a reversal in August after July closed Green. There is still a long way to go just to get a confirmed backtest of previous Support (which would be expected to be resistance). The long-term trend is still very much down with temporary relief, the one we feel now.

Bitcoin Weekly - Mid-Term

As mentioned before, the Bitcoin Weekly chart is more or less sideways. The close last week resulted in a loss of $126 or -0.54%. Four weeks ago, Bitcoin traded in a range from $20-24K, and we have been in that area for the three weeks that followed. Until we get out of this range, the weekly is not giving us much to analyze.

Bitcoin Daily - Short-Term

Bitcoin is trading with respect to a very loose Wedge. The wedge is loose because Bitcoin keeps poking its head over resistance. There is a trendline ahead in the distance and a structure retest area. That could be where the Bulls are trying to take the price. The Bears more or less have a free pass for several thousand dollars. In other words, they don’t need to step up their game unless they want to, as they have a huge cushion before testing any true levels.

Daily Bitcoin Volume

The Bitcoin volume continues to trend downward, but the slope of the decline has tapered off quite a bit. We are still at a respectable volume – the same volume we were at about a year ago and remained at the volume for close to a year. The real story is if we have a massive increase in volume or a massive decrease in volume. As of now, we are staying relatively safe.

Bitcoin Dominance

Bitcoin Dominance has lost its support once again. As you can see on the chart, this was an area of Support before the big Bitcoin rally but dominance has now come all the way back down and flipped that area to resistance once again. 

Bitcoin CME Futures

The CME Futures chart shows a few gaps from the previous weeks that have remained unfilled. Two from last week are very small. There is an interesting one from five days ago that has a partial fill at the moment. Filling the gap from two weeks ago would send shockwaves through the trading market as that means we may be breaking a structure level for this very new and very local uptrend.

Conclusion

Here we can see a much clearer picture of what the Daily is offering to traders. A fairly ugly wedge is the loose guidelines to this 9-part, local, upward trend. The reason why traders get excited when they see this is that there is a chance that this is the beginning of a reversal on a macro scale.

The reason why we can’t get on board with that logic just yet is that we have yet to test true resistance. When we make it to $29-30K, and we see the reaction, then we can have a more clear picture of whether we are looking to reverse course and retest the previous ATH or drop down into single-digit BTC.

That is not to say that there are no trades in this area, of course, there are. The larger trend is still very much down, but that only means you need to calibrate your risk and tighten up your stops.

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