Weekly Recap – 07-31-22

Top 5 by MCAP

Although this recap is mostly about Bitcoin, it’s still important to discuss the overall health of the Top 5, as numbers 2-5 have sway in the altcoin world. Except for Bitcoin and Cardano, the 4-Hour timeframe shows a strong upward trend. The H4 is a solid timeframe for many traders as it is a happy medium between the M15 and the Daily. BNB is the clear 7-Day positive gain winner, more than doubling the 7-Day gain from Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Monthly - Long-Term

The long-term Monthly macro trend is still downward, and with the structure of trends working the way they do, we could see a move to $68,999 and still technically be putting in a Lower High. Generally speaking, trend counting would start Low when looking for uptrends and start at the High when looking for Downtrends. Either way, we are either three pieces to a downtrend structure or only two.

Bitcoin Weekly - Mid-Term

The Bitcoin Weekly chart is looking to retest the southside of the structure if it can hang tight to the current shifting momentum. The first local area is around $29K, which is also the low side of our resistance area that was created from wicks back in early 2021. There is a chance we see some reverse Bart Pattern action and have a massive 4-6 thousand dollar weekly candle but that is not always a good thing as it may just be a handful of whales trying to unsuccessfully move the market. As for now, there is not too much in the way for Bitcoin to climb back into the $29K area.

Bitcoin Daily - Short-Term

As far as the Daily is concerned, Bitcoin has crept outside of this local wedge twice and found rejection both times. We are trending upward with eight pieces to the uptrend puzzle on the Daily timeframe. We are looking to see if any lows get broken on this current pullback. If everything remains consistent, then we are still targeting Higher Highs and Higher Lows until the trend breaks.

Daily Bitcoin Volume

Volume is still trending down, which is never a good sign during a relief. This could be telling us that the ones responsible for the rise in price and running out of cash flow or they simply never had that much to begin with. Without the conviction of retail traders to finish what whales start, the chance for a change in momentum is few and far between. 

Bitcoin Dominance

Dominance has once again fallen all the way down to Support at 42%. If we see more Alts going on solid pumps, then we can expect to see Bitcoin Dominance continue to drop. This is not exactly a bad thing considering the current price of Bitcoin. The market at this moment would have a hard time dealing with Bitcoin if its Dominance were to double.

Bitcoin CME Futures

Futures did have a few substantial moves over the last two weeks, but everything was confined to a fairly narrow range. Our partial gap remains untouched, and most newly created gaps were filled within a day or two. When the dust settled, we were left with two new recent gaps, one High and one Low.

Conclusion

Regardless of your emotions or your emotional bias, analysts look at data and read what that data is saying. The current Daily is showing an upward trend in a Bear Market. The question then becomes, when is it ok to Long while the world is Short? The answer is simple – when all the pieces of your strategy align to tell you that the probability of a successful trade outweighs the potential of another loss.

We are currently in an area of hesitation. We see the uptrend on the Daily, but it’s difficult to pull the trigger while still under key levels. This is when taking the emotions out of trading separates the winners from the losers. All in all, so long as you have set a proper Stop-Loss and you have enough confluent factors to take a trade – take the trade!

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