Weekly Recap – 07-10-22

Top 5 by MCAP

Although this recap is mostly all about Bitcoin, it’s still important to discuss the overall health of the Top 5 as numbers 2-5 do have sway in the altcoin world.  Last week at this time the short timeframe trends were all looking green and ready to deliver a relief that many have been looking for.  There is a large majority of Altcoins that did indeed post positive gains over the previous 7 days and Bitcoin itself was able to push over 7% even after giving some back.  In fact, Bitcoin was up almost a peak 20% from the low last week on the 3rd.

Bitcoin Monthly - Long-Term

There is not exactly any kind of shakeup to see here on the Long-Term monthly chart.  July is green at the moment and price action is consolidating on the lower timeframes.  A decent breakout with some sustained volume behind it would need to maintain those levels for another 20 days in order to close out July in the Green.  Even then, we need to see a clear break in support and then some time above those levels before we can even consider reversals.  

Bitcoin Weekly - Mid-Term

Two weeks ago we lost $1700 on the week.  Last week we gained $1500 back by the time we closed the week out.  The vast majority of the trading for the previous four weeks all have something in common and that is the exposure to the mid $19’s.  Zooming out on the weekly chart allows for a lot of forgiveness as it widens zones out much larger than on the Daily.  This area is $20K by definition and that means this area is the 2017 ATH Level.  It is understanbdable that we would spend a good amount of time here.  Early predictions called for 1-3 months near 20K before a decision is made in the action.  Breakout or Breakdown.  Unfortunately, that is coming true so far.  We just finished spending a month in this area and we have no really clear indication that price is leaving this zone anytime soon.  For everyone’s sake, the sooner, the better so we can all get on with out trading!

Bitcoin Daily - Short-Term

While we wait to see if these Bear Flags will play out, Bitcoin has decided to form a channel and consolidate further.  This becomes tiresome for traders as consolidation can take from a few days to a few months and even sometimes much longer.  During these area price can whipsaw up and down on the lower timeframes making it nearly impossible to trade on the intra-day platforms.  

The good news is that after awhile we create clear boundaries that are generally respected when price comes near them.  Those who understand consolidation can find opportunities within the range while they wait for either a break out of resistance or a break down of support.

Daily Bitcoin Volume

One of the few things we can take away in a positive light is the Volume.  Our 30-day trend for volume is hovering near the high side from May/June (on average).  This does not include those spikes we saw near mid June.  The increase in volume, be it buying or selling, is at least showing action and activity in the market.  That is really important as now is about the time the news media outlets will start trying to convince you that Bitcoin is dead and its never coming back.

Bitcoin Dominance

Bitcoin Dominance continues its struggle to regain the levels it recently lost.  With the chop trading Bitcoin has done and the few alts that are looking to run, it becomes very difficult for Dominance to actually pave the way to anything.  Bitcoin is not the only kid in town and while it struggles to find a price action identity, some traders will use that to their advantage and trade a few Alts while Bitcoin decides on a clear direction.  During those times we have the opportunity to see some Alts make moves they normally would not.  If we see a run in Alts then we fully expect Bitcoin Dominance to lose all upcoming support once again.

Bitcoin CME Futures

CME Futures took a bit out of a very old and very large Gap last week.  The $18,020 Gap and the $16,925 Gap were both created around the same time.  These date back to 12-14-2020 and 11-30-2020 respectively.  The November Gap did have a good chunk filled the following week but it was only a partial; and there is a lot of it left to fill.  The Bears are clearly eying this area up but they have yet to be able to rise to the challenge.  We now have a decent sized overhead gap from our Friday close.


So what is the conclusion?  Great question.  The conclusion is to wait for more downside if the mid 19’s is to break and stay broken for a few days of trading.  The idea to long this area is only for those who are beginning or continuing a DCA Schedule – which there is absolutely nothing wrong with at all.

In the coming days, watch this channel for an early indication that the buyers or sellers are in control of the consolidation area.  Strength to the high side can bring us back to $22,400 and then $28,000 on a massive pump but a break of the support would look more like a drop to the low $17’s and then further near $14K.

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