Weekly Recap – 06-26-22

Top 5 by MCAP

Although this recap is mostly all about Bitcoin, it’s still important to discuss the overall health of the Top 5 as numbers 2-5 do have sway in the altcoin world.  For a minute there we were finally starting to see a little bit of a relief, which was very nice.  The overall consensus amongst analysts is “cautiously optimistic”.  This means that we are starting to see some life in the market but this could collapse at any second without warning.  

Bitcoin Monthly - Long-Term

The Bitcoin Long-Term outlook is “down until bottom”.  With the loss of the $28,800 low that was put in before the $69K ATH, we have no other way to look at the long-term chart.  Now, we could go back to 2009 and put the chart in log and if we did that, yes, we are still very much up.  The reality is that the market has taken a massive hit and even the long-term outlook has been reduced to downside price action until there is reason to believe otherwise.

Bitcoin Weekly - Mid-Term

No one can deny the Support found at the 2017 ATH of $20K.  Sloppy?  Yes.  Does it matter?  No.  When you look at High Timeframe Charts, you take a wick here are there and you look past the really granular details.  You zoom your focus out to look at the bigger picture.  Did Bitcoin trade at $17,567… yeah, it sure did but does it feel like $20K held as Support – yeah, it sure does – for now.

At the moment we have a massive bearish candle push down through $29K.  We have a close above $20K on the big drop candle and the following week.  However, the Weekly closed with indecision.  This is neither Bullish or Bearish but the result is generally a continuation of the previous action.  That would mean that last week was the calm before another storm.  At the moment, Support is holding.  If it were to fail, it would likely get real ugly, real fast.  

On the upside, there is a ton of room without any major resistance.  This could mean that the Bulls have free reign to go all the way back into the 30’s, if only just for a retest.

Bitcoin Daily - Short-Term

Bitcoin in the next week… well.  $22,460 would be a respectable place to find resistance before turning around and continuing with downside price action.  A break above the $22,500 zone with volume would make a good case to head into the downward sloping trend and see if the Bulls are really showing up to play ball or not.  

The Bear Flag or elongated Bear Flag as it is a very ugly and very sloppy pattern, does have a measured move target around $16,200.  The interesting thing about that is that the Head and Shoulders from November had a target at around the same price.  Confluence for $16K?  Yes.  

Daily Bitcoin Volume

Bitcoin Volume is settling down again after it erupted like a volcano two weeks ago.  The settled average is still above the long average we had dating back to last September.  The issue here is if we fall back to that average that lasted so long.  The action back then was anything but fruitful, unless you were short since November.  

Bitcoin Dominance

Bitcoin Dominance got smashed while it was climbing back to 50%.  It got hit so hard that during the fall back it broke right through Support as if it wasn’t even there.  These type of volatility in Dominance is a great wake-up call to traders to be eying up potential trades in the Altcoin Market.  This is not always the case but it is certainly an option when you see the Dominance fall.  Dominance is approaching a trendline that is unconfirmed at the moment.  If it is able to hold those levels then we will likely see a bit more stability in the market.

Bitcoin CME Futures

The CME Futures was relatively calm last week and all daily gaps were filled the following day.  Bitcoin is certainly closer to filling the lower gaps than it is the upper gaps but there is always the chance of a false rally or even a legitimate rally that would help to fill the upper gaps before the lower gaps.  As of right now, more downside would be expected as the futures likely feel cheated for not reaching those levels last week.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is being compressed at the moment on the Daily chart.  Indecision last week has made a bit of a mess out of analysts charts.  Traders are cautious about taking longs as they know we don’t have the confirmation yet and traders going short or getting squeezed every other day.  Any high leverage traders are feeding the market with their liquidations and those on the sideline are just waiting for a reason to buy.  

Breaking South from here could lead to the fulfillment of the upper flag – consider a move to $16K to be nice but $13-14K because of PAIN.

Breaking to the north could bring a move to the trendline which can range from $26,700 down to $25,200 – depending on the day.

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