Weekly Recap – 06-12-22

Top 5 by MCAP

Although this recap is mostly all about Bitcoin, it’s still important to discuss the overall health of the Top 5 as numbers 2-5 do have sway in the altcoin world.  All Long-Term trends are down across the board and by Long-Term, in this case, we are speaking to the Daily Trend from the PAS.  

Our PAS is showing heavy red in almost every single timeframe in the Top 5 by market cap.  It is very safe to say – Everything Looks Bad.

Bitcoin Monthly - Long-Term

Bitcoins Long-Term trend shifted for a downward trajectory last month and so far this month, we are seeing a lot of support for the downward call.  We are currently “filling the wick” that was left during the Black Swan event with LUNA/UST.  Sweeping that low and filling the wick would also help close a few CME Gaps as well.  We’ll talk about those soon.  

Bitcoin Weekly - Mid-Term

We are almost completely out of GREEN on our Weekly view of Bitcoin.  Two more support levels broke after the close earlier tonight.  The Weekly dropped another $3300 and that is after starting the week Bullish and on Support.  Now we are $300 from trading at the LUNA/UST Black Swan Lows that we saw in early-mid May.  More and more does it look like everything is in the cards for further downside and the next major horizontal in the area is actually the ATH from 2017 near 20K.

Bitcoin Daily - Short-Term

The last touch of our local trendline was the kiss of death for the current action.  Six straight red days in a row and we are very well red for the first few hours of Day 7.  The main problem here is there is no real support in sight and to make matters a bit harder to digest… there is not a single Bullish indicator in site.  There almost doesn’t seem to be any reason at all for buyers to step in, especially during the macro economic climate.  What we do now is analyze the strength of the momentum moving forward as the path of least resistance is surely further downside.

Daily Bitcoin Volume

Volume has taken a massive decline ever since mid May.  The good news is that we are near the same amount of volume we were at before LUNA/UST.  Now, if we can maintain that volume or bring it up a notch from here than it would be a lot easier to simply call the LUNA Event exactly what it was – an Event.  The outlier or the anomaly in the market where we can reference the times before and the times after said event.  The other good news is that Volume is somewhat declining and we have been steadily declining in value as well.  This is one indication that sellers may be getting exhausted.

Bitcoin Dominance

Bitcoin Dominance has finally taken over its 47.5% level and is on its way to test out 50%.  This area in the Green that we have been in for such a long time was the original area where Alts had the best chance to make large gains.  However, ever since November, Alts have been in a downward spiral and none of them look good at the moment.  

Bitcoin CME Futures

The good ‘ol Bitcoin CME Futured Gap Chart rears its ugly head once again… Our last two local Gaps were easily filled over the last few days.  The opening candle today left a major gap from the close of last Friday.  This Gap spans from a high of $28,920 to a low of $27,365 but that is not even the big news.  The Big news is that we are inching closer and closer to revisiting the partial gap we have left over from Christmas Eve of 2020!  $23,685 is the number we are looking for to finally fill this 18-month gap.  That being said, we still have lingering gaps well under $23,685 but filling this first one should help to pave the way of filling the rest.

Conclusion

Is it unrealistic to think that Bitcoin will retest its previous ATH?  Not if you look at the numbers.  The drop after the 2017 ATH was 84% – basically 20L down to 3K.  After the failed attempt in 2019 we dropped from the high of 2019 to the low of 2020 in a massive 72% fall.  Now, from our recent ATH just back to the 20K ATH we are only looking at a 71% drop.  This is really not all that bad.  That being said, a more realistic 85% drop would actually mean Bitcoin sees 10K once again.  We are in the middle of a fairly ugly market that has everything in its favor to continue downward from here BUT we are actually getting more and more good news come into the Crypto space – so what gives?  Well, even the good news cannot stop the macro events nor can it stop a free fall.  In these times it is best to let go of the wheel, let the action make its move and then analyze the data once the dust has settled a bit.

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