Weekly Recap – 06-05-22

Top 5 by MCAP

Although this recap is mostly all about Bitcoin, it’s still important to discuss the overall health of the Top 5 as numbers 2-5 do have sway in the altcoin world.  

For the first time in a long time we are starting to see the short-term (M5 and M15) trends turn green.  The reason this is significant is because the entire market has been red for so long that we can finally see an overall change in the continued drop.

Bitcoin Monthly - Long-Term

The Long-Term trend will not be shifted by a few hours of upward trading but we will take anything we can get in this market.  Since the Luna Black Swan, the low has remained.  Long-Term will need significant price action in order to shift the Monthly downtrend.  

Bitcoin Weekly - Mid-Term

Weekly is currently hanging its hat on three major support zones.  

Zone 1 – Major 618 = $28,742

Zone 2 – Horizontal = $28,800 – $32,300

Zone 3 – Upward sloping trend from March 2020 Black Swan Event.

The break of the $28,800 did create an environment for more downward pressure and that is the overwhelming response from traders recently as we had printed 9 weekly bearish candles in a row.  Last week finally closed green!

Bitcoin Daily - Short-Term

Our Daily is fast approaching its first upward level check test as we have a local downward sloping trend in the future.  The mostly sideways Bitcoin has absolutely destroyed the overall market as more and more traders get shook out Daily.  Will todays price action be enough to heal wounds or has too much damage actually been done this time around?

Trading above our local 236 is a good sign and we would still like to see a minimum 50% retracement from the previous high.  

Daily Bitcoin Volume

Volume was a bit up and down over the week.  We saw a small rise and that was followed by a small decline that essentially brought us back to the same average volume that we started at.  Ideally we would love to see volume drop off if we continue downward or sideways action and then an increase in volume if we are to start trending up.  

Bitcoin Dominance

Bitcoin Dominance continues to struggle in this area.  Our resistance level is holding on for dear life.  The good news now is when the Dominance is falling, that means that the alts are finally seeing some much needed love.  Even if temporary, it helps the entire market overall.

Bitcoin CME Futures

The most unfortunate news about this Sunday/Monday pump is that it may all come screaming back when the traditional market opens.  A new gap was created below when the Monday candle opened.  There is also another gap that was left over by the pump candle on Tuesday.  Both of these are attractive for the right kind of trader.  

Conclusion

If we see $32K at any point this week then there is a chance we break the local trend and push back to 36-37K area.  A dip below $27,900 and Bitcoin would be playing with fire.  There are a lot of people who will never trade Bitcoin again but there are even more sitting on the sidelines waiting for something to happen in the market that is worth paying attention to.  There is a small chance we are seeing the beginning of what is important to pay attention to.

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