Weekly Recap – 03-19-23
Top 5 by MCAP
Although this recap is mostly all about Bitcoin, it’s still important to discuss the overall health of the Top 5 as numbers 2-5 do have sway in the altcoin world. Things are heating up for the first time in a long time and the Top 3 are not afraid to show it. Number 4 and 5, XRP and ADA respectively are not quite as bullish on their respective higher timeframes as BTC, ETH and BNB but they will likely get there if things continue in the direction they are headed.
Â
Bitcoin Monthly - Long-Term
Long-Term Monthly did precisely what it needed to do to instill confidence in traders and investors alike. The August High that became the main level around the Double Top has recently been broken. The early-year curse can be lifted if Bitcoin closes March in the green, but we still have 11 more days to find that out. We can easily see that eight months of consolidation have recently been broken.
Bitcoin Weekly - Mid-Term
The Bitcoin Weekly candle has done everything needed to make a lasting statement. The statement is loud, it’s clear, and it’s Bullish. On the 17th week from the recent low, Bitcoin closed a Weekly Candle adding over $5800 to the price of Bitcoin. This massive 26% candle comes off the heels of the 2017 ATH retest, the near collapse of some regional central banks in America, and the de-pegging of one of the biggest stablecoins in crypto, USDC. This type of candle says – don’t read the news. Don’t follow the gurus. Get off Twitter. This is the candle people look back on in years to come and say – yeah – that is where it started.Â
Now, a retest of the 25 area is certainly not out of the question; in fact, it would make more sense for us to do that. However, in the past, we have seen explosive candles followed by FOMO candles, resulting in no retest of specific levels until months later. There is a chance we retest and go, or we simply go.
Bitcoin Daily - Short-Term
Not to be outdone entirely by its Big Brother, the Weekly… Bitcoin Daily has put in some really impressive price action lately. The most important of them all was the decisive break of the highest local structure break at the $25,200 area. However, as mentioned in the Weekly overview, a retest of the same area would be expected. This will shake out high-leveraged longs and those late to the party.
Notice each structure break came with a sizeable candle. This is very important to recognize as it shows the continued strength in trend even after being exhausted by the time it reaches those levels. This is a great confidence booster for the Bulls, and it’s demoralizing for the Bears.Â
Daily Bitcoin Volume
Volume was curling back up on the 30-Day average but had recently started trending downward again. Given the current banking crisis, it’s no wonder that many traders and investors have sat out on the sidelines awaiting more explicit directions. I expect to see the volume start climbing again soon if we are to see a continuation of upward price action.Â
Bitcoin Dominance
Still one of the most reliable charts in the industry… Bitcoin Dominance. We talked about the third attempt at the resistance level could be an explosive breakout… this has indeed happened. 44.5% is now a thing of the past, and Dominance is headed directly toward the next level of resistance, which is where we see it now. 47.5% is currently the level to beat. However, I would expect some cooldown in the interim, which is precisely what everyone else wants because they want the Alts to catch up to Bitcoin’s recent moves.
Bitcoin CME Futures
Here is something we haven’t seen in a very long time… Bitcoin Futures opened in the middle of a gap while creating a new lower gap in the process. Before we get too comfortable in uptrend territory, I must remind everyone that we still have lower gaps on the chart. Most of the lower gaps are very small, and there can be an argument that gaps lower than “x” need not be filled, but until that argument is made, be mindful of those gaps. Also, the recent gap left at $19,965 is almost certainly getting filled; whether it takes a week, a month, or a year, the probability of it getting filled is in the upper 90 percentile.Â
The Big Upper Gaps we are looking for are the following:
$28,920
$35,925
$41,245
Conclusion
In a traditional sense, an uptrend will break a level of resistance, put in a new local high, and then come back and retest that level as support. If that happens to Bitcoin, we’d look at a 382 pullback before continuing to the high side. There are a few factors that could keep a retest from happening.Â
1: Retail FOMO
2: Unexpected Bullish Catalyst
3: Expected but not timed Catalyst
4: Cascading Short Liquidation Event
5: Whale Sideline Sentiment Shift
Anyone of these five things, likely more, could be enough to stive off an inevitable retest. That is not exactly a good thing. A healthy trend does not go straight up because that is anything but sustainable. The market would be more willing to accept a pullback now than in two weeks or two months. However, unless there is some catalyst, I’m afraid the pullback is more likely to happen than not.
If you enjoyed this article, consider sharing with friends on Social Media. Lets grow the Community together!
Responses