Weekly Recap – 03-13-21

Top 5 by MCAP

As always… what a freakin’ week!  War, Regulatory News, FUD and any number of other external factors all pressing down and applying sell pressure on the entire Crypto Market.  We can see the Top-5 looking, well…

Bitcoin, Ethereum and BNB are all getting a bit crushed but importantly, Bitcoin is actually still trading above its two most recent lows.  All hope is not lost but clearly the Market is struggling to maintain the amount of capital it was enjoying only a few months ago.

Bitcoin Monthly - Long-Term

When we talk about Long-Term there are only two levels that matter.  The Low at $28,800 and the High at $69,000.  Breaking $28,800 opens the door to the larger trend being invalidated.  So long as the trading stays above $28,800 then we can say we are still technically trending upward on the longer term view – such as the view we are looking at here.  The current large-scale sideways action we see can still break either way, Up or Down and there is still the opportunity that we trade sideways for many more months.

Bitcoin Weekly - Mid-Term

Bitcoin Weekly is struggling.  Every high side attempt gets sold off before the week is through.  You can tell the Bulls are trying but the Bears are simply way too strong at these levels.  When the Bears run out of Bitcoin to sell, these levels could break to the high side but that is only if the buying remains constant as the Buy Pressure would need to outweigh the sell pressure.

Weekly levels remain intact.  Our downward sloping is back to Support at the moment but our block of resistance remains consistent at $39K.  Closing above $39K would be the first time in a long time that the Bulls show any kind of actual sustainable life.  If the Bears rip below $32,933 then they are asserting dominance and will likely push for $28K next.

Bitcoin Daily - Short-Term

Bitcoin is still holding higher on the Daily then its previous Lows.  This is a big deal as the momentum to the downside is starting to fade.  This si no guarantee that we don’t break the support levels but it gives Support levels that can either slow down or stop the selling completely.  $35K is not out of question here and it would make sense given the price action.  

Daily Bitcoin Volume

Once again, Volume remains fairly consistent.  Not a lot to look at here except a slight downward movement in the 30-Day average.  While trending down and maintaining Volume can lead to some more downside, if price action slows (which it has) that can also be a green light for a potential upside break.

Bitcoin Dominance

Dominance has been on the rise for a bit now.  We still remain under key levels but the rise has been fairly steady.  With the addition of our local trendline, we can start to see the beginning of some weakness.  If we are to lose this trend it would not be detrimental but it could actually allow for some Alts to start making a few moves while Bitcoin takes a breather.

Bitcoin CME Futures

We’ve had some ups and we’ve had some downs but ALL LOCAL GAPS are filled.  The question remains do we see $32K before we see $55K?  Those are the closest gaps – one upside and one downside.  There are plenty of gaps still left way down below but we have yet to drop under $28,800, so we need not bother with those at the moment.

Conclusion

The market is a bit rough right now.  There is a War happening that in one way or another is affecting the entire World.  For better or worse, the market is reacting.  On top of that, America has executive orders they are dealing out and the EU is proposing on banning Proof of Work.  Tie all that together with the highest inflation in 40 years and a Fed meeting on Wednesday and we have a full fledged recipe for disaster.  The very fact that Bitcoin is trading in the high 30’s is already insanely impressive given the current global fiscal climate.

That being said, we can actually rise from here, although a quick downward sweep would make more sense technically.  The idea that Bitcoin can still be a Safe Haven and can still outperform any stock or commodity in the world is very attractive to a lot of people.  Wednesday should be one of those days where the news either makes or breaks the price action.

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