Weekly Recap – 03-12-23

Top 5 by MCAP

Although this recap is mostly about Bitcoin, it’s still important to discuss the overall health of the Top 5, as numbers 2-5 have sway in the altcoin world. It has been an exciting week, to say the least. The most recent news came the other day when a few critical banks announced closing, leaving investors and members caught in the crosshairs of yet another significant shortcoming in the space. This news spurred a massive depeg of USDC, long considered the safest stablecoin in all crypto. Although there will be no official word until Monday in America, The market has taken matters into its own hands and has already recovered.

In the last 24 hours, Bitcoin cashed in on a 9.4% pump while Cardano enjoyed an 11% move back North.

 

Bitcoin Monthly - Long-Term

The long-Term trend is pulling back heavily in March after closing two months in the Green. Unfortunately, the confluence of the rejection after the Double-Top is all too clear at the moment and will keep many investors on the sidelines. The only thing bringing that money into Bitcoin is when the recent high gets broken with conviction. Until then, it’s a waiting game. On the downside, there is now a level to hold and a trend if we are to see a dump. 

Bitcoin Weekly - Mid-Term

The Weekly candle close has given us much to think about. The candle itself is a bit of a mystery, and the location doesn’t help matters at all. By design, the candlestick is mostly a Hammer, but two weekly candles don’t exactly make for a downtrend. On top of that, there is a bit of a topside wick. The body is too large to consider it a Dragonfly Doji. Possibly the closest we can get is a two-candle pattern called a Bullish Pinbar, but we are not trading a market that closes and trades after hours. 

We know that the body was a $218 loss for the week but had a max drawdown from the open of $2863. So, Bitcoin actually recovered $2646 in a 13.5% move upward before closing the candle out. The support was at the 2017 ATH, so it makes sense that buyers in that area were ready to load up. So now we wait to see if Daily Rejection will hold or if we continue to see a rise to retest the local highs.

Bitcoin Daily - Short-Term

The Bitcoin local uptrend has been invalidated. Last week the trendline was confirmed and tested five times before finally giving way to the Bears and starting what would be a $3000 drop. Here we can see the magic of an actual Hammer Candlestick pattern. The candle above the “3” is a Hammer, and the resulting two candles would all be profitable if one used that candle as their basis to enter a long. Refer to the Weekly above if you are lost.

The main issue for the Daily is the trendline held for five candles before dying. This is now considered resistance, and so far today, that is precisely what we are seeing. Shorts are placed at the trendline or slightly before the trendline to anticipate rejection. Where this candle closes will help tell the story, but more will unfold from the recent banking crisis when America wakes up in a few hours.

Daily Bitcoin Volume

Volume has seen an uptick since early March. Some of this is selling, and some is buying, but at the end of the day, it’s Volume. A healthy market has a lot of trading volume, regardless of the price. Bitcoin looked a bit unhealthy in the Volume department for a while, but the last two weeks are starting to change that. Of course, some volatility came with the increase in Volume, but that is one reason some people love this market.

Bitcoin Dominance

Dominance is still feeling the pain from 44.5%. The initial rejection was expected, but the secondary rejection came when Bitcoin should have had the momentum to clear a path. As we can see, that didn’t happen. Now we are four steps into a downtrend and 4 points into a falling wedge pattern. A falling wedge after an uptrend will generally break to the high side, but with Dominace, there is no telling as this is not a directly traded asset in and of itself.

Bitcoin CME Futures

Bitcoin decided to go on a ride when Weekend bailout news reached the streets for the recently closed Silicon Valley Bank and others. Unfortunately, this pushed Bitcoin on a Sunday and before the Futures opened. This has left a significant gap in its place. Another Big Gap was recently filled when Bitcoin was dumped last week. This clears the path to push high before returning to these tiny gaps or leaving them for eternity.

Conclusion

I needed to move the numbers around slightly because they were in the wrong position in the other chart. Regardless of that, the area of interest for the short term is the trendline. This current downtrend is not confirmed yet, but it invalidated the local uptrend we saw earlier. However, some analysts will remove the swing low sweep and add that to a larger uptrend. This can be done only after the local high has been broken. 

All eyes are on the trendline, and all eyes on the charts after they clear up the news with SVB. 

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