Sunday = Funday...?
Here’s the thing about Weekends and Crypto… they are very hard to predict. Weekends can either bring the most volatility in a given week or absolutely no movement at all as if everyone forgot they had an account to trade from.
The closure of the CME Futures also brings an element of restriction in the market, especially for Bitcoin. Weekend Traders don’t like to get too far away from the Friday Close and if they do, they need to make it really count. So, in the end, we may see some upward action and some downward action but at the end of the day, price really doesn’t go anywhere. What is interesting to note is the Close of the Friday Candle is generally one of two things:
- The Open of the Monday Candle
- Very quickly retested
Just from our small sampling of 7 data points, we can see something interesting:
For the two times that the Monday open was more than a percent away from the Friday close, the Friday level was tested on either Monday or Tuesday.
CME Futures Gap Chart
The current CME Gap Chart shows a lower Gap at $32,270 and an upper Gap at $61,980.
What is more interesting is when you look at every single candle and see how many Gaps are filled the very next day. I forget the math but it’s well over 70% of the time.
In Other News
Yesterday we talked about FTM having buyers waiting at the H4 20 EMA – that is the White Line on the chart above.
Here we can see the back and forth near the 9 EMA (Orange Line) as price did indeed come down to the 20 EMA and sure enough, there were buyers waiting to re-load their FTM positions.
Unfortunately, this happened on the weekend, so it’s impossible to gauge reaction on Monday until Monday is actually here. What we can say is that the 20 EMA was only tested once and continues to be the lowest low at the moment.
$2.26 is still the previous resistance we were looking for in Price Discovery and it continues to prove how good of a level it is as it has rejected 5 of the last 5 attempts to trade beyond it.