The State of the Alts – 12-29-22
The Global View
Top Left: Total Market Cap – Daily
Top Right: Total Excluding BTC – Daily
Bottom Left: Total Excluding BTC and ETH – Daily
Bottom Right: Total Market Cap – Others – Daily
The charts above represent the Market Cap of Crypto in four different ways. At first, we can see the total Market Cap of all of Crypto, and we can easily decipher if there is a trend up or down. From there, we move to the total Market Cap of all Altcoins (any coin that is not Bitcoin). The bottom two charts represent the entire Market Cap without Bitcoin and Ethereum, somewhat representing what the entire Altcoin market Cap looks like with the biggest player, Ethereum. The last chart is called Others, which would be our closest representative of Shitcoins.
The last week was filled with holidays, travel, family and all the other things in life outside of trading. That being said, we’ve been ranging since the 16th of December and unless there was a miraculous change in the market, we could do with a week from the charts and articles. Don’t worry, every alert has been set for a year now.
Did we miss anything spectacular, no. The biggest change is the confirmation of TOTAL2 trading under previous support. We’ll talk more about that below.
Total Market Cap - (T - 125)
Description: Total Market Cap is the figure you get when you add up the market cap of all individual coins throughout crypto. This number comes with a disclaimer, as not every single crypto is included in this list. With over 20,000 individual token protocols, not everyone is legit. There are dead coins, scam coins, and coins that are irrelevant and artificially propped up to maintain some type of market cap. This chart, in particular, is calculated by TradingView, and the Total Market Cap comprises the Top 125 coins on the market.
Just as the coins that make up the index are sideways, so to is TOTAL. After the drop on the 16th, the index has stayed to the North side of the large support zone. Of all four charts, TOTAL remains the healthiest for two reasons:
1: Price is still above the long-term downward sloping trendline
2: Price remains on the upper half of the support zone.
So long as support continues to hold, we can tred water. If the support is to break then there is likely another large leg down before we can access the damage.
Total Excluding BTC
Description: This chart is the Total Market Cap but without Bitcoin. The reason for this is to get a gauge on where all the other money is in Crypto if it’s not in Bitcoin. The difference between the Total Market Cap and the one excluding Bitcoin can help you understand where Bitcoins’ Dominance comes from. If the chart above was half of the Total Market Cap, we could say that Bitcoins’ Dominance in the entire Cryptosphere is 50%.
Once we take Bitcoin out of the mix, things get a bit unhealthier. We continue to take resistance from the overhead downward-sloping resistance, and a majority of trading is in the lower half of the support zone. This is a dramatic shift from TOTAL, the chart above that includes Bitcoin. This tells us that Bitcoin is providing a lot of support in the overall ecosystem.
Total Excluding BTC & ETH
Description: Just as the chart above excluded Bitcoin from the Total Market Cap, this chart excludes Bitcoin and Ethereum. Ethereum has made its stand for the Number One Altcoin and currently enjoys a 4X in Market Cap next to its closest competitor on the list. This chart removes the two most prominent players from Crypto and gives us a better idea of what the actual market is doing, regardless of what the two major players are up to.
Just as we saw with TOTAL2, when we remove Bitcoin and Ethereum from the mix, things get much, much darker. The nearly 2-year support has officially broken, and we are approaching our third week of trading under the zone. A retest would be expected, but only if either Bitcoin or Ethereum pumps. Left to their own devices, Alts are in a bad place and will likely continue to bleed.
Description: In keeping with TradingViews tradition of removing coins from their Total Market Cap, OTHERS represents coins 11-125 by Market Cap. They essentially remove the Top 10 coins from their list of 125, and we are essentially left with the old Index we used for Midcaps. This does not precisely show us what mainstream Shitcoins are doing but rather the middle-of-the-road Mids that are fighting with each other to move up the list and breach the sacred T – 10.
Onto the OTHERS. I know you are asking why OTHERS looks better than TOTAL2. The short answer is the OTHERS had a considerable head start dumping while the rest are only playing catchup. Notice the distance to the overhead downward-sloping trendline. OTHERS is so far ahead of everyone else that it could keep the same position for a long time while the others dump. Now, the support zone is a bit of an issue. Technically, we could have added a support zone above that would resemble the other charts more closely. That would mean the support zone we have been in corresponds to the support zones under the previous three charts.
Another thing OTHERS is telling us is that the Top-10 Crypto is to blame for the massive sell-offs. These ten cryptos alone are affecting the other 65,000 tokens available. This chart only looks at the top 125 minus 1-10.
Here we can see the price action and trends of the Top 25 in Crypto by Market Cap. On the right-hand side of the picture, you can also see the Peak Gains from the last seven days.
The Wrap Up
In a few short days, it will be 2023. Many people have said this is the worst year of their lives. Whether it is the worst or the best could be a matter of perspective. Such is the way with trading.
For the shorter in the world with access to short markets, they are in their heyday. For others, not so much. For some, they “sold in May and looked away,” while others have been praying for a miracle daily. In any event, there is no guarantee that 2023 will be any better. No matter what happens, we will continue to watch the charts, watch the trends, analyze the data and keep you all informed of what is happening around you.
This is the last article of 2022, and the Sunday Bitcoin Weekly Recap will be on Sunday, January 1st, 2023. Happy New Year!
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