The State of the Alts – 11-17-22

The Global View

Top Left: Total Market Cap – Daily
Top Right: Total Excluding BTC – Daily
Bottom Left: Total Excluding BTC and ETH – Daily
Bottom Right: Total Market Cap – Others – Daily

The charts above represent the Market Cap of Crypto in four different ways. At first, we can see the total Market Cap of all of Crypto, and we can easily decipher if there is a trend up or down. From there, we move to the total Market Cap of all Altcoins (any coin that is not Bitcoin). The bottom two charts represent the entire Market Cap without Bitcoin and Ethereum, somewhat representing what the entire Altcoin market Cap looks like with the biggest player, Ethereum. The last chart is called Others, which would be our closest representative of Shitcoins.

Total Market Cap - (T - 125)

Description: Total Market Cap is the figure you get when you add up the market cap of all individual coins throughout crypto. This number comes with a disclaimer, as not every single crypto is included in this list. With over 20,000 individual token protocols, not everyone is legit. There are dead coins, scam coins, and coins that are irrelevant and artificially propped up to maintain some type of market cap. This chart, in particular, is calculated by TradingView, and the Total Market Cap comprises the Top 125 coins on the market.

TOTAL tested, broke, and then completely lost the retest from the breakout trend in late October. This was a major indicator for many traders, but the FTX news was a bit too strong and a bit too bearish for TOTAL to retain the trendline that it took a year to break. The short-term good news is that after the carnage, TOTAL is actually sitting on support. That support goes all the way back to the ATH peak from very early 2018 after the 2017 rally.

Total Excluding BTC

Description: This chart is the Total Market Cap but without Bitcoin. The reason for this is to get a gauge on where all the other money is in Crypto if it’s not in Bitcoin. The difference between the Total Market Cap and the one excluding Bitcoin can help you understand where Bitcoins’ Dominance comes from. If the chart above was half of the Total Market Cap, we could say that Bitcoins’ Dominance in the entire Cryptosphere is 50%.

We can see here that the FTX crash was too much for the 20/50 crossover to remain intact. With TOTAL2 sitting under the 50, the 20, the 200, and the major trendline, it certainly has its work cut out for it when it comes to the next spark of interest from investors. Just like TOTAL, the support TOTAL2 is sitting on dates all the way back to the previous cycle ATH in early 2018.

Total Excluding BTC & ETH

Description: Just as the chart above excluded Bitcoin from the Total Market Cap, this chart excludes Bitcoin and Ethereum. Ethereum has made its stand for the Number One Altcoin and currently enjoys a 4X in Market Cap next to its closest competitor on the list. This chart removes the two biggest players from Crypto and gives us a better idea of what the actual market is doing, regardless of what the two major players are up to.

TOTAL3 reached all the way to the bottom of the Support Zone, which dates back to the ATH in early 2018. TOTAL and TOTAL2 did not reach the very bottom of their respective support areas, but the rest of the market apparently took a bigger hit than the Top 2. TOTAL3 shares the same properties as TOTAL, and TOTAL2 regarding the action is below all major EMAs and the major trendline. 

Market Cap - Others

Description: In keeping with TradingViews tradition of removing coins from their Total Market Cap, OTHERS represents coins 11-125 by Market Cap. They essentially remove the Top 10 coins from their list of 125, and we are essentially left with the old Index we used for Midcaps. This does not precisely show us what mainstream Shitcoins are doing but rather the middle-of-the-road Mids that are fighting with each other to move up the list and breach the sacred T – 10.

Without having a basket of MIDS as we had during the days of FTX, OTHERS act as the next best thing. We see the Market Cap of coins 11-125. This essentially removes the Top 10 from the equation. What we are left with is the more volatile assets that range from a market cap of just shy of $10 Billion to just north of $100 Million. This is a massive difference from #11 to #125, but it is what it is. OTHERS was the only index that did not reach its 2018 Support Zone. Instead, it dropped down just above the top of the zone and has been consolidating above it for the last week. Another very noticeable difference is how far away OTHERS is from its overhead resistance trendline compared to the other three charts. It is hard to predict what the fallout would look like if OTHERS were to get pushed under the support zone. As for now, it has been able to temporarily recover and find solid ground without the need for previous support. 

Top 30 by Market Cap

Here we can see the price action and trends of the Top 30 in Crypto by Market Cap. On the right-hand side of the picture, you can also see the Peak Gains from the last seven days.

The Wrap Up

There is very rarely a dull moment when it comes to Crypto. Between regulations, hacks, Twitter wars, scams, frauds, pumps, and dumps, there is generally something going on. As with most everything in the world these days, what you see and hear on social and the news are widely accepted as the extremes. It is fair to say that nearly 100% of the talking heads don’t have the qualifications to even be on the internet, let alone try to feed the masses with the information they no little to nothing about. 

Crypto, from what we can decipher, is not dead. Although it has been announced by every major media outlet around the globe, they tend to get more things wrong than right, more often the time. Crypto is still a very young market since it only started in 2009 and didn’t really have a decent trading presence until the 2015-2017 range; we can say with certainty that the market is incredibly young and will go through plenty of growing pains. 

Times like these are when you need to exercise patience. Let the chips fall, let the dust settle, and refocus on what happened and how the charts look. Many will dive right in at the first smell of blood, but these high-risk moves rarely pay out. If you are in a DCA position, carry on, as that is the exact nature of DCA.

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