The State of the Alts – 11-10-22

The Global View

Top Left: Bitcoin Dominance – Daily
Top Right: Altcoin Index – Daily
Bottom Left: Midcap Index – Daily
Bottom Right: Shitcoin Index – Daily

Above, we can see a snapshot of the entire Crypto market broken down into four very specific charts.  The overall Bitcoin Dominance chart shows you how much of the total market cap belongs to Bitcoin, and therefore it also tells you how much of the market belongs to Altcoins.

Another week in Crypto will go in the record pages. This was a dramatic week across the board and most of the action revolved around a very popular crypto exchange, FTX. All the details are still being sorted out, so there is no reason to get into that at the moment. We can see the charts and we can see the effect of the fallout. The market got punished and no coin was spared in the process. Bitcoin itself lost 22% over the course of two trading days.

Altcoin Index

Description: Each asset in the Altcoin Index is weighted the same.  This gives a good look at a basket of higher profile and higher MCAP coins. 

The majors actually respected the TA, regardless of the markets. The resistance on the 200 EMA will confluence of the previous high was enough to hold the majors in place. The fallout pushed Alts below both the 20 and 50 EMAs and briefly rifled through our local support. However, we did see some buying pressure today as the market settled a little bit. Our local support is holding but we are once again fighting the 20 and the 50 EMAs overhead. This could just as easily be the beginning of yet another leg down, as we saw back in 2018.

Midcap Index

Description: This is the playground for most traders.  It’s widely excepted that the top-tier Crypto has already made most of their explosive moves, but that is not the case in the land of the Mids.  The Mids make a wide variety of projects from L1s like Algorand to ad-seeking marketing like BAT.

The Mids were not as lucky as the majors this time. The Mids have lost their recent local upward-sloping support and they found a bounce near their 2-year-old support zone. This is more dramatic than last June. In the process, the 20 EMA has crossed under the 50 EMA, and that was a confined cross yesterday. Now we wait. If we are to see some action on the lower support, many different scenarios could play out. The idea of support is that it will generally hold for the first few attempts while seeing if the action turns around, but we would be dealing with support that has not been used as support since December of 2020. 

Shitcoin Index

Description: What market in the world can you label a basket of assets and call them SHIT?  Only Crypto, baby!  The SHITperp is your view through the window of our beloved Shitcoins.  These represent 50 coins that have a relatively low market cap but still have stand-out projects.  Coins like MANA, in and of itself, is actually a great project with a bright future, but its market cap deems it as Shit.  THETA, CHZ, ENJ, HBAR, ZEN, etc.  These projects are actually good projects with good fundamentals, so they skew the balance sheet a bit because these are not exactly the Shitcoins that some other people talk about when they talk about Shitcoins!

ShitPERP has actually been saved by its very long and very old downward-sloping trendline. If you recall, SHIT was last in line to finally crossover this zone, and we never really saw a proper retest – until the other day, that is. Even the local breakout from recent lower highs was able to maintain its support, at least temporarily, after the dust settled. What does this mean? Is it possible that while all the attention sits with the majors that the little SHIT coins could start making some moves? These will be very interesting to keep your eyes on over the next week.

Weekly Movers

MATIC is about the only survivor after the dust settled. Earlier today it reclaimed 30% after the market tanked yesterday. As far as L1s and L2s are concerned, MATIC is holding its own despite all the selling.

The Wrap Up

The FTX situation is yet another nightmare situation in crypto but don’t let that shake you from your destiny. Mt. Gox was the “death of Bitcoin” as well as Bittrex, Bitfinex, Silk Road, China bans, Mining Freezes, and well over 500 more examples where Bitcoin was declared dead, and crypto was gone forever. These things have a way of making the surviving crews, smarter, wiser, and more hardened than ever before.

The current hole right now is around $8 Billion. For about 4-hours, Binance was entertaining an acquisition, but after taking a look at the books, they opted out. The tragedy in a situation like this is if nothing changes. If the end result is: better exchanges, tighter security, larger insurance pools, and more transparent exchanges then the overall good can try to attempt to outweigh the bad. The reality is that many, many people got hurt really badly and that’s never ok, especially at the hands of a few greedy and undeserving people.

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