The State of the Alts – 11-03-22

The Global View

Top Left: Bitcoin Dominance – Daily
Top Right: Altcoin Index – Daily
Bottom Left: Midcap Index – Daily
Bottom Right: Shitcoin Index – Daily

Above, we can see a snapshot of the entire Crypto market broken down into four specific charts.  The overall Bitcoin Dominance chart shows you how much of the total market cap belongs to Bitcoin, and therefore it also tells you how much of the market belongs to Altcoins.

Coming off the heels of yet another Fed rate hike, the market was expected to tank. Rumors and speculation grew over the last few weeks, indicating that the Fed would actual make a pivot as opposed to doing nothing or hiking rates. This bullish sense was effectively priced in. What most did not expect was another 0.75 basis point hike and what no one expected was the market, more specifically, the Altcoin market, to get bullish.

Altcoin Index

Description: Each asset in the Altcoin Index is weighted the same.  This gives a good look at a basket of higher profile and higher MCAP coins. 

The high caps are on roll. As you can see from the teal vertical line on the chart above, we have yet another 20/50 EMA crossover on the Daily resolution for ALTPERP. These can be a precursor to a rally and add confidence and confluence for traders worldwide. Also, the resistance was found at both the 200 EMA and the previous high from the previous short-lived rally. This is significant as if this area gets flipped to support, we will see a ton of traders going back into the market. The high-risk traders are already in, and we can see that from the recent rise in prices across the board.

Midcap Index

Description: This is the playground for most traders.  It’s widely excepted that the top tier Crypto have already made most of their explosive moves, but that is not the case in the land of the Mids.  The Mids make a wide variety of projects from L1s like Algorand to ad-seeking marketing like BAT.

Although the Mids try to paint the picture of the MIDCAP market as a whole, the Index is quite limited compared to the sheer number of Mids. We have seen a few Mids decouple themselves from the rest of the market, but this does not translate back to the Index because they’re not included in the basket provided by FTX. We do see a 20/50 EMA Daily crossover on MIDS, which appears to have happened two days after the Majors. Also, the ALTS made their way upward to overhead resistance both horizontally and by way of the 200 EMA whereas the MIDS have yet to really leave the 20 EMA. Look for some action over the course of the week.

Shitcoin Index

Description: What market in the world can you label a basket of assets and call them SHIT?  Only Crypto, baby!  The SHITperp is your view through the window of our beloved Shitcoins.  These represent 50 coins that have a relatively low market cap but still have stand-out projects.  Coins like MANA, in and of itself, is actually a great project with a bright future, but its market cap deems them as Shit.  THETA, CHZ, ENJ, HBAR, ZEN, etc.  These projects are actually good projects with good fundamentals, so they skew the balance sheet a bit because these are not exactly the Shitcoins that some other people talk about when they talk about Shitcoins!

SHIT pulls the short straw for the 52nd week in a row. Or at least close to a year. While ALTS and MIDS are trying to make a case for some fresh capital and for traders to focus, SHIT struggles to close a candle over the 50 EMA, something it has not done concretely since last Saturday and before, early September. So, SHIT has a lot of work to do to catch up to MIDS and even more work to do to catch up to ALTS.

Weekly Movers

BNB, LINK, ALGO, LUNC, MASK, EGLD, TWT… we have some action for the first time in a very long time. Keep your eyes on the list above as well as the scanner every day to see what is cooling off from its downtrend and strengthening on its uptrend. Weakness at the 12 and Daily levels with some strength at the early H4 and H6 markers can help to identify trends that are shifting towards a rally.

What to Watch


MASK may very well serve as a template for hundreds of trades in the coming weeks. This is a great example of a coin decoupling from the BTC and overall market action. Once breaking the resistance level from a 6-month period of consolidation, MASK retested the area and shot up to the global 236 Fibonacci level. Played correctly, and this was anywhere from a 150-200% profit trade, and that is missing the first 212%. All in all, MASK has moved 515% up in just 13 days. The next areas of attention are the 382 and the 50, but there is a Weekly level of resistance prior to the 382. We need to see if this is a pump and dump and completely dies afterward or if it continues to surge. Either way, keep your eye on this to get the template for what some other coins are likely to do.

The Wrap Up

ALTS are showing all the signs for the beginning stages of either a short-term rally or an all-out reversal. The 20/50 EMA is only the start. We need to see the break of the previous high, which has already been tested, and then we need to see the 50 EMA confined as being flipped to support. With the 200 EMA in such close proximity and also being a major factor in the recent resistance, a flip of the 200 from Bear to Bull should be enough to start calling for a short-term upward rally. 

Generally speaking, if ALTS do go for a ride, the profits made from the ALT market will likely spill over into the MIDCAP market and then from MIDS over to SHIT, in that order. This is a whale game and a way to secure profits from the big boys and pump the low-cap gems once they are feeling better about their portfolios.

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