The State of the Alts – 10-13-22

The Global View

Top Left: Bitcoin Dominance – Daily
Top Right: Altcoin Index – Daily
Bottom Left: Midcap Index – Daily
Bottom Right: Shitcoin Index – Daily

Above, we can see a snapshot of the entire Crypto market broken down into four specific charts.  The overall Bitcoin Dominance chart shows you how much of the total market cap belongs to Bitcoin, and therefore, it also tells you how much of the market belongs to Altcoins.

What a day! Earlier today, we saw Bitcoin drag the entire market down as it dropped over 5% or a $1022 loss from the day’s opening. This brought us to a low that we haven’t seen since June of 2022. Our low earlier today was $18,131. However, Bitcoin rallied 6.89% or $1248 to close the day strong at $$19,379, putting it at a daily gain of 1.17% or $223.

This had a massive effect on Altcoins of all flavors. From Majors to Mids to Shitcoins – nobody was spared the volatility. You will see a direct comparison of the Major market from this morning to after the Daily candle closed below.

Altcoin Index

Description: Each asset in the Altcoin Index is weighted the same.  This gives a good look at a basket of higher profile and higher MCAP coins. 

Altcoins got hit pretty hard today, and although they joined Bitcoin with the rally before the close, it was not enough for Alts. As we can see in the chart above, this is now the third day in a row closing underneath our support trendline, and we remain a good distance away from our 20 EMA and only getting further each day. We remain well above our June lows, but unfortunately, the June lows are where the next major level of support resides. At this moment, Alts remain risky with the market in the current condition that its in.

Midcap Index

Description: This is the playground for most traders.  It’s widely excepted that the top-tier Crypto has already made most of their explosive moves, but that is not the case in the land of the Mids.  The Mids make a wide variety of projects from L1s like Algorand to ad-seeking marketing like BAT.

The Mids favored better than the Majors in the fact that they did not lose their local trendline for support. The Mids also remain extremely close to their 20 EMA, in fact, so close that they took resistance during the day yesterday. The 20 and 50 EMAs both remain an area of resistance for the Mids, as they have for the last several weeks. 

Shitcoin Index

Description: What market in the world can you label a basket of assets and call them SHIT?  Only Crypto baby!  The SHITperp is your view through the window of our beloved Shitcoins.  These represent 50 coins that have a relatively low market cap but still have stand-out projects.  Coins like MANA, in and of themselves, is actually a great project with a bright future, but their market cap deems it as Shit.  THETA, CHZ, ENJ, HBAR, ZEN, etc.  These projects are actually good projects with good fundamentals, so they skew the balance sheet a bit because these are not exactly the Shitcoins that some other people talk about when they talk about Shitcoins!

ShitPERP is currently still the worst of the bunch. Things will be very different when we enter another Bull Run but until then, Shitcoins take the hardest blow when it comes to traders selling these coins off. Shitcoins remain under both their 20 and 50 EMAs, as well as their larger overhead trendline, and they also broke through their local support trendline. Shitcoins are going to need a hail mary to come out of this without needing to retest the June lows. That being said, they are very far away from their next major level of support, and a freefall is not out of the question if we do not see a break of the upper trend.

Weekly Movers

To the left is a snapshot of the market during the morning and to the right is a snapshot a few minutes after the Daily close and the start of this article. The difference between the smaller timeframes is incredible. Every major and mid remain destroyed on the higher timeframes but that last-minute rally during the last few hours of the day was enough to turn the short-term trends around and add a small ray of hope for the market.

The Wrap Up

From the time this article was started until this moment now, (2 hours later), the market has changed significantly. Bitcoin was just traded within $50 of $20K. Not bad considering yesterday we were staring at the crossroads of 18 and 17K. Will Bitcoin put in a rally here and gain momentum for the first time in a long time? It’s possible. Again, the current momentum is down, so the Bulls have a ton of extra work on their plate if they are looking to convince anyone to buy.

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