The State of the Alts – 10-06-22

The Global View

Top Left: Bitcoin Dominance – Daily
Top Right: Altcoin Index – Daily
Bottom Left: Midcap Index – Daily
Bottom Right: Shitcoin Index – Daily

Above, we can see a snapshot of the entire Crypto market broken down into four very specific charts.  The overall Bitcoin Dominance chart shows you how much of the total market cap belongs to Bitcoin, and therefore it also tells you how much of the market belongs to Altcoins.

It has been quite some time since we have had something special to write about regarding the Altcoins as a whole. The previous week has brought exciting and eye-catching moves for both ALTS and MIDS. Unfortunately, there isn’t too much to speak of on behalf of the SHITcoins. Bitcoin Dominance has also made a rare move by having a 20/50 crossover and a few days of confirmation after the last significant bounce to 40%.

Altcoin Index

Description: Each asset in the Altcoin Index is weighted the same.  This gives a good look at a basket of higher profile and higher MCAP coins. 

ALT has broken through its local pullback/downtrend. This was only the third touch, so it’s technically not verified as a trend breakout, but it’s something that certainly grabs the attention, especially in this market. We have added a potential trend from the bottom side of action, calling the low in June “the low.” We will see how that pans out. The 20 and 50 EMAs are almost converging, but the 50 is still maintaining its roll as resistance for now.

Midcap Index

Description: This is the playground for most traders.  It’s widely excepted that the top-tier Crypto has already made most of their explosive moves, but that is not the case in the land of the Mids.  The Mids make a wide variety of projects from L1s like Algorand to ad-seeking marketing like BAT.

The MIDS have two tricks up its sleeves. Firstly, as with the ALTS, we see a local trendline break. This trendline did indeed have three touches which verified it beforeMIDS was able to crossover the downward sloping trend and confirm the flip to support. Secondly, the wide downward-sloping resistance zone is now on its 15th day of being traded inside, and just today, we are starting to see the price work its way to the North of that zone. A flip here would be what we saw ALTS do back in late July. Like ALTS, MIDS are currently using the 20 EMA as Support and the 50 EMA as resistance.

Shitcoin Index

Description: What market in the world can you label a basket of assets and call them SHIT?  Only Crypto baby!  The SHITperp is your view through the window of our beloved Shitcoins.  These represent 50 coins that have a relatively low market cap but still have stand-out projects.  Coins like MANA, in and of itself, are actually a great project with a bright future, but their market cap deems them as Shit.  THETA, CHZ, ENJ, HBAR, ZEN, etc.  These projects are actually good projects with good fundamentals, so they skew the balance sheet a bit because these are not exactly the Shitcoins that some other people talk about when they talk about Shitcoins!

SHIT is not as fortunate as the two aforementioned indexes. SHIT is still struggling with its 20 EMA, still remains below the local trend, still has yet to even tough the much larger downward-sloping resistance zone, and still needs to contend with a massive horizontal resistance zone. Literally, everything is stacked against SHIT at the moment. There does remain a chance that if we are to see a move in ALTS and MIDS, we also see some carryover into SHIT as well.

Weekly Movers

It is a rare occasion, as of late, to see some major differences in our Top-25 coins. There has been such a tight correlation over the last few months that it almost looks unnatural to see the PAS like this. XRP, TRX, MATIC, UNI, LINK, and even XLM are showing some short-term as well as some slight mid-term strength in positive price action. ADA, DOT, SHIB, and AVAX are showing nearly the opposite; much more strength to the downside.

The Wrap Up

We have a bit of a mixed bag at the moment. Certainly, nothing Bullish enough to make trades from but a break in the 11-month downtrend would be welcomed by all. These very early signs of a potential shift are great to see but that is all they are, for now, something to see and something to analyze further as more price action comes in the following weeks. Next month we mark a year since Bitcoins ATH at $69K. The 2017 Cycle ATH to the following Low was almost an exact year, to the date…

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