The State of the Alts – 08-25-22

The Global View

Top Left: Bitcoin Dominance – Daily
Top Right: Altcoin Index – Daily
Bottom Left: Midcap Index – Daily
Bottom Right: Shitcoin Index – Daily

Above, we can see a snapshot of the entire Crypto market broken down into four specific charts.  The overall Bitcoin Dominance chart shows you how much of the total market cap belongs to Bitcoin, and therefore it also tells you how much of the market belongs to Altcoins.

Last Friday, the Bears made a statement as they tacked on a heavily bearish candle to the 5-day steady drop. This was Market Wide. Every Major, every Mid, and every Shitcoin took a hit, for the most part. We have seen a slow and steady retracement across the board. ALTPERP alone retraced to a peak of 78.6% from the open of the Friday bloodbath, but the entire market now tests resistance.  Almost everything is red from its rolling 7-day window.

Altcoin Index

Description: Each asset in the Altcoin Index is weighted the same.  This gives a good look at a basket of higher profile and higher MCAP coins. 

ALTPERP is now on its 6th day fighting the daily 50 EMA. Right above the 50 is the 20 EMA – this is the point of failure when we saw the peak yesterday. The day is young, and we are approaching the weekend very soon. Three things can be said at the moment:

1: The 20 remains above the 50

2: The Low is still a Higher Low than the previous Low

3: We could be forming a Bear Flag

Midcap Index

Description: This is the playground for most traders.  It’s widely excepted that the top-tier Crypto have already made most of their explosive moves but that is not the case in the land of the Mids.  The Mids make a wide variety of projects from L1s like Algorand to ad-seeking marketing like BAT.

Unfortunately, it’s time to break out the broken record and say everything we just said all over again… MIDS is the same as ALTS at this moment. By that, I mean they are functioning the same as the Majors do to the drop last Friday. When things happen like that across the board, it tends to reset every trader, regardless of the market. The outliers here are ATOM and DCR. Both assets are up double digits from their respective rolling 7-day window. ATOM is up 16%, and DCR is up 15%.

Shitcoin Index

Description: What market in the world can you label a basket of assets and call them SHIT?  Only Crypto, baby!  The SHITperp is your view through the window of our beloved Shitcoins.  These represent 50 coins that have a relatively low market cap but still have some stand-out projects.  Coins like MANA, in and of itself, is actually a great project with a bright future but its market cap deems it as Shit.  THETA, CHZ, ENJ, HBAR, ZEN, etc.  These projects are actually good projects with good fundamentals, so they skew the balance sheet a bit because these are not exactly the Shitcoins that some other people talk about when they talk about Shitcoins!

CHZ is up about 12%, and that about wraps it up for SHITPERP… Again, just like MIDS, there isn’t much to talk about at the moment as all three indexes are mirroring one another. More clarity comes when we test Fridays open from last week. If the Bulls have control, then we are back to short-term trending upward. If the Bears have control then the short-term relief is over, the false rally is true and more downside will be expected.

Weekly Movers

Here we can see that outside of SHIB, ETC, ALGO, and VET, everything has lost its low timeframe upward trend. Not only have they lost their trends, but they are also either turning bearish or are already heavily bearish on the lower timeframes. The Bottom half of the Top-10 are also very heavily bearish on their respective longer timeframes, specifically, the Daily.

The Wrap Up

No one likes a false rally but the reality is, we may have very well been in one. The market gives and takes all the time just as it ebbs and flows forever. The overall macro downward pressure has not come to a conclusion yet but we are seeing some signs of bottoming out. For example, the volatility has normalized, besides last Friday, of course, and the volume has remained pretty much consistent. We continue to watch Support and Resistance levels get challenged and then make our decisions based on Price Action of the market as a whole and the individual tokens that look good.

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