The State of the Alts – 08-18-22

The Global View

Top Left: Bitcoin Dominance – Daily
Top Right: Altcoin Index – Daily
Bottom Left: Midcap Index – Daily
Bottom Right: Shitcoin Index – Daily

Above, we can see a snapshot of the entire Crypto market broken down into four very specific charts.  The overall Bitcoin Dominance chart shows you how much of the total market cap belongs to Bitcoin, and therefore it also tells you how much of the market belongs to Altcoins.

You blink your eyes, and DOWN SHE GOES… What has been speculated for a little while now is, unfortunately, coming to fruition. Not all is lost, however, as this market does tend to get joy out of shaking out both the longs and the shorts. The advances that were made are now testing the support that was once resistance, and if they are successful in holding the line, then there is a good chance the momentum shifts to the bulls. As of right now, we are seeing the bears take full control of the market.

Altcoin Index

Description: Each asset in the Altcoin Index is weighted the same.  This gives a good look at a basket of higher profile and higher MCAP coins. 

ETH was leading the charge for a while but in the last few days, we are now showing a 7-day rolling drop of 4%. What is most interesting about ALTPERP is where it took resistance. When we get to MIDS and SHIT you will at least see a reason why they fell from grace but ALTS… there just isn’t much to see. We are currently testing the 50 EMA. This is the first 50 EMA test after the 20/50 crossover. This does lend its hand for support as this is not far from what is expected after the 20/50 crossover.

Midcap Index

Description: This is the playground for most traders.  It’s widely excepted that the top-tier Crypto have already made most of their explosive moves, but that is not the case in the land of the Mids.  The Mids make a wide variety of projects from L1s like Algorand to ad-seeking marketing like BAT.

As mentioned in ALTS, we can at least see where the resistance played a part in the early demise of the MIDS. The overhead downward sloping trendline was enough to knock the sails out of the MIDS. Will this last as a major drop, or will the 50 EMA catch the falling action? All things considered, the rise has been slow and steady, but if ALTS is to fall, MIDS will surely go down with them.

Shitcoin Index

Description: What market in the world can you label a basket of assets and call them SHIT?  Only Crypto baby!  The SHITperp is your view through the window of our beloved Shitcoins.  These represent 50 coins that have relatively low market cap but still have stand out projects.  Coins like MANA, in and of itself is actually a great project with a bright future but its market cap deems it as Shit.  THETA, CHZ, ENJ, HBAR, ZEN, etc.  These projects are actually good projects with good fundamentals, so they skew the balance sheet a bit because these are not exactly the Shitcoins that some other people talk about when they talk about Shitcoins!

MIDS got crushed on the downward sloping trendline but SHIT got crushed on the horizontal resistance zone. We had one good daily close at the bottom of the zone, but that was it. The bears have stepped up the last 72 hours and have put a beating on SHITCOINS across the board. SHIT may not be able to drum up enough support in the current market condition but if we are to see a turnaround in ALTS to the positive side, then we will likely see a resurgence of confidence in SHITCOINS.

Weekly Movers

Only a week ago we were looking much more GREEN… The first 4 trend segments are low timeframe, so, there is no wonder that after three or four days of downward action that the M5, M15, M30, and H1 would all be RED. The light green in the H4 and H6 still shows some promise as the pullback may be hard and fast with a quick bullish bounce.

The Wrap Up

This market is great at making traders second guess themselves. A few weeks of slow upward action is enough for some analysts to call the next bull run, and then a day or two of downward action and those same analysts are calling for crypto to go to zero…

Not much give or take there. We just look at the charts and see what we see. Some short-term trends have failed. Just plotting a trendline on an ALT and seeing if it broke down through the support level is a good place to start. The saving grace here is ETH. It tends to add confidence to the rest of the ALT market. So, if ETH is to hang on and maintain support, there is a chance the rest of the market will follow suit. That being said, the market is currently trending down.

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