The State of the Alts – 07-21-22

The Global View

Top Left: Bitcoin Dominance – Daily
Top Right: Altcoin Index – Daily
Bottom Left: Midcap Index – Daily
Bottom Right: Shitcoin Index – Daily

Above, we can see a snapshot of the entire Crypto market broken down into four very specific charts.  The overall Bitcoin Dominance chart shows you how much of the total market cap belongs to Bitcoin, and therefore it also tells you how much of the market belongs to Altcoins.

This last week are starting to see some major moves on a lot of Alts, across all tiers.  ETH, Matic, and AVAX all hit 30% moves upward and some key levels are just starting to get flipped to Support.   We could very much be in the middle of an epic Short Squeeze but we could also just be testing the northern waters in preparation for a big-time reversal.

Altcoin Index

Description: Each asset in the Altcoin Index is weighted the same.  This gives a good look at a basket of higher profile and higher MCAP coins. 

We have officially broken beyond the 20 EMA, and we have taken it one step further by flipping the 50 EMA as Support for the moment.  As we’ve talked about before, these things happen in steps.  First the 20, then the 50.  Ideally, we would like to see the 20 EMA cross over the 50 EMA for some added assurance that this could last for a little bit.  It was late March the last time we had a 20/50 crossover, and it’s something that a lot of traders will look to for confirmation that the short-term trend is beginning to reverse.

Midcap Index

Description: This is the playground for most traders.  It’s widely excepted that the top-tier Crypto have already made most of their explosive moves but that is not the case in the land of the Mids.  The Mids make a wide variety of projects from L1s like Algorand to ad-seeking marketing like BAT.

The Mids are doing just fine as well but they had a bit more of a pullback than the Majors.  Even still, Mids across the board are up from 7-days ago.  We look to see if any of these can make stand-alone breakout plays.  In other words, we are looking for a leader that can shine the light and grab the attention so that we can see how the greater market responds.  

Shitcoin Index

Description: What market in the world can you label a basket of assets and call them SHIT?  Only Crypto baby!  The SHITperp is your view through the window of our beloved Shitcoins.  These represent 50 coins that have a relatively low market cap but still have stand-out projects.  Coins like MANA, in and of itself, is actually a great project with a bright future, but its market cap deems it as Shit.  THETA, CHZ, ENJ, HBAR, ZEN, etc.  These projects are good with good fundamentals, so they skew the balance sheet a bit because these are not exactly the Shitcoins that some other people talk about when they talk about Shitcoins!

Shitcoins.  Just about everyone’s favorite type of coin to trade when things are starting to heat up.  Most of these guys are just finishing up taking another beating, so their 7-day highs are not as impressive but they are also very quick to turn around and very quick to take the lead on gains once things start to warm up across the board.

Weekly Movers

I’m trying to remember the last time we saw Green in the H6… MATIC and UNI are the only two showing dark green but we do have some light green that can be possibilities over the course of the week.  Coins like:
ETH
BNB
SOL
SHIB
AVAX
FTT
XMR
ETC
ATOM
ICP

All of these are showing the first signs of potential trends turning positive.  A close eye should be kept on them all.

What to Watch

The overall Alt-Market is, dare I say, getting Spicy…

ETC/USDT:

ETC is making moves.  In the old days, ETC could run all alone, without any need for the rest of the market to do anything.  ZIL took that spot for a while, but now we see ETC making some breakout moves here.  After testing historical lows, ETC has risen from the ashes like a Phoenix, and it’s already posted a 100% gain.  If ETC can establish enough Support to make another run, we are looking at another 100% move, ETC sitting at $50.

The Wrap Up

This should go without saying but PLEASE be careful with this market.  Trade with a SYSTEM and a plan for that trade.  You always want to determine at what point you need to exit to preserve your capital.  

Opportunities can look so bullish one day, and inside of a single 5-minute candle, all your dreams can fade away.  It’s really just that fast.  As for now, we ride the momentum so long as there is momentum to ride.  We continue to look for trending coins that may offer potential trades.

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