The State of the Alts – 06-30-22

The Global View

Top Left: Bitcoin Dominance – Daily
Top Right: Altcoin Index – Daily
Bottom Left: Midcap Index – Daily
Bottom Right: Shitcoin Index – Daily

Above we can see a snapshot of the entire Crypto market broken down into four very specific charts.  The overall Bitcoin Dominance chart shows you how much of the total market cap belongs to Bitcoin and therefore it also tells you how much of the market belongs to Altcoins.

Well here we are…the final day of Q2.  In fact, the images you will see here today will be the final Q2 images as we waited for the Daily Candle to close before we took any screenshots.  The final second quarter candles are in and the first half of 2022 has come to a close.  

Are we still trending down – Yes

Do we still see a lot of resistance on the way up – Yes

Have we shown confirmed signs of a reversal – No

Do we expect further downside – Yes

 

Altcoin Index

Description: Each asset in the Altcoin Index is weighted the same.  This gives a good look at a basket of higher profile and higher MCAP coins. 

ALTPERP sets the stage for others to follow and by that we saw yet another rejection on the Daily 20 EMA that sent the ALTPERP down five days in a row.  These types of rejections happen time after time but this one was particularly important because there was actually a little bit of momentum to the upside for Alts top play off of.  The fact that they didn’t tells you that there is likely more downside to happen in the near future.  

Midcap Index

Description: This is the playground for most traders.  It’s widely excepted that the top tier Crypto have already made most of their explosive moves but that is not the case in the land of the Mids.  The Mids make a wide variety of projects from L1’s like Algorand to ad seeking marketing like BAT.

MIDCAP index had a little bit more love with its 20 EMA but it ended up failing nonetheless.  This was unfortunate but so long as the entire market is going down than it is unlikely that Mids or Shitcoins will be able to thrive in the wake.  Mids were able to close above the 20 EMA for 2 or 3 days but again, ultimately failed.

Shitcoin Index

Description: What market in the world can you label a basket of assets and call them SHIT?  Only Crypto baby!  The SHITperp is your view through the window of our beloved Shitcoins.  These represent 50 coins that have relatively low market cap but still have stand out projects.  Coins like MANA, in and of itself is actually a great project with a bright future but its market cap deems it as Shit.  THETA, CHZ, ENJ, HBAR, ZEN, etc.  These projects are actually good projects with good fundamentals, so they skew the balance sheet a bit because these are not exactly the Shitcoins that some other people talk about when they talk about Shitcoins!

SHITPERP looks more like Mids than it does Alts and it suffered just about the same issues as Mids in the process.  We saw about 4 days over the 20 EMA on the Daily but in the end, it failed just the same.  The important thing to note for all three indexes is the fact that none of them have actually broken their low from the previous week.  All the lows were put in yesterday and so far today we are seeing a little bit of a relief. 

Weekly Movers

Last week was down for most alts across the board and from all three categories of indexes.  We can see in the picture above that they overall trend, starting from the H4 is heavily down.  Until these trends can start shifting the higher timeframes than we are subject to more of the same.  There is always the opportunity that we may see some sideways action and that can be sustained for a long time but we have not exactly created a bottoming area just yet.  The idea that we have already bottomed has been thrown around by many analysts but until we see some more data than we are unfortunately left to continue to watch the market and wait for the clues.  

The Wrap Up

The overall week was just another week in the books without too much activity on either the Buys or the Sells.  These times in the market we can see a few days of a rise and that is generally followed by a few days of a loss, a loss that is usually lower than the previous low.  This is what a trend looks like.  Until a trend has been broken and price actually starts reversing course, there is not too much to focus on except the outliers.  This is where Scanners and Alerts are your best friends.  They allow you to see a snapshot of 10K+ coins that meet your criteria for what an outlier actually is.   These are huge time savers and they are a professional traders best friend!

 

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