The State of the Alts – 04-28-22

The Global View

Top Left: Bitcoin Dominance – Daily
Top Right: Altcoin Index – Daily
Bottom Left: Midcap Index – Daily
Bottom Right: Shitcoin Index – Daily

Above we can see a snapshot of the entire Crypto market broken down into four very specific charts.  The overall Bitcoin Dominance chart shows you how much of the total market cap belongs to Bitcoin and therefore it also tells you how much of the market belongs to Altcoins.

Another overall bad week in Crypto across the board.  &-Day losses climb into the 20% range for most Alts from Mids to Shit.  Bitcoin itself is working on its second decent day after getting destroyed on Tuesday. That $2300 Daily drop was enough to shatter some Alts and break key levels of long-term support.

Altcoin Index

Description: Each asset in the Altcoin Index is weighted the same.  This gives a good look at a basket of higher profile and higher MCAP coins. 

Here we can see the 7 days days of dumping with Day 6 looking like all it was doing was testing the waters but day 7 (Tuesday) sealed the deal and ripped the market in half.  Most Alts right now don’t even reflect the change of Bitcoin trying to climb back to Tuesdays levels.  It takes Alts a minute to reflect the change and when its a whipsaw up and a whipsaw down, sometimes only the Down move applies across the board and no one buys into the pumps.

Midcap Index

Description: This is the playground for most traders.  It’s widely excepted that the top tier Crypto have already made most of their explosive moves but that is not the case in the land of the Mids.  The Mids make a wide variety of projects from L1’s like Algorand to ad seeking marketing like BAT.

Midcaps are taking the beating a bit harder.  Compared to the 6% drop in Alts on Tuesday, Mids took an 8% drop.  Also, as you can see in the charts, Alts are starting to recover with a bullish candle on the Daily, Mids however, still in the red.  Mids and Shit will have the hardest time recovering from the constant pump and dump and sideways market conditions.  

Shitcoin Index

Description: What market in the world can you label a basket of assets and call them SHIT?  Only Crypto baby!  The SHITperp is your view through the window of our beloved Shitcoins.  These represent 50 coins that have relatively low market cap but still have stand out projects.  Coins like MANA, in and of itself is actually a great project with a bright future but its market cap deems it as Shit.  THETA, CHZ, ENJ, HBAR, ZEN, etc.  These projects are actually good projects with good fundamentals, so they skew the balance sheet a bit because these are not exactly the Shitcoins that some other people talk about when they talk about Shitcoins!

Believe it or not, Shitcoins held together stronger than Midcaps.  There is a reason for this and the reason is that some Shitcoins are only vessels for Pump and Dump bad actors.  One single pump and dump and the right time can skew the results of the entire index.  However, what you are seeing in the chart is still a very good look at what is happening across the board as far as Shitcoins are concerned.  Very few are doing well and for very short periods of time while for the most part, Shitcoins are bleeding out heavily.  

Weekly Movers

Here we can see even the Alts that did post respectable weekly gains are still overall trending down hard.  A few on the list are newer coins without full Daily trend data but of the ones that do have full data, only two are showing a weak downtrend compared to a strong downtrend.  

The Wrap Up

From Majors to Minors and every single coin in-between, the Altcoin Market is having a bit of a struggle these last few months.  A huge ton of Alts are down from their price 3-months ago and almost all are trading lower than the last 30-days of trading.  Some are even under 30-40% from where they were just one month ago.  

We are at that time in the market where long positions are just getting dumped on by relentless sellers.  The point is to drive prices down far enough for the whales to get better positions for the next leg up.  Only problem is, they keep the playbook to themselves.  Do they want a 40% dump, maybe an 80% dump or what the hell… let’s just repeat 2018 and look for some Alts to dump 95%!  

The point is this – if there is not a clear trade with confluence and confirmation of a reversal of a downtrend – then there is no trade at all.  These times are great for learning and experimenting and going outside to tough grass for the first time in a year.  

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