The State of the Alts – 04-21-22

The Global View

Top Left: Bitcoin Dominance – Daily
Top Right: Altcoin Index – Daily
Bottom Left: Midcap Index – Daily
Bottom Right: Shitcoin Index – Daily

Above we can see a snapshot of the entire Crypto market broken down into four very specific charts.  The overall Bitcoin Dominance chart shows you how much of the total market cap belongs to Bitcoin and therefore it also tells you how much of the market belongs to Altcoins.

This last week can be best described as a mess.  Alts are such a mixed bag at the moment.  The actual Week, has not been bad.  From Monday – Wednesday Alts were really trying to find a groove but Thursday came a wiped most of that joy away.  Bitcoin has been doing a lot of shaking people out with a few days of hope and then endless misery.  Alts are having a really tough time dealing with the overall market shift from day to day.  

Altcoin Index

Description: Each asset in the Altcoin Index is weighted the same.  This gives a good look at a basket of higher profile and higher MCAP coins. 

The Alt Index took a beating two weeks ago and after a decent rally back to previous support, the retest proves to be too much.  Failure was the result when the index came back to retest the bottom sides of the 20 and 50 EMAs that were lying in the wait.  That being said, the drop down while pushing towards resistance was indeed a Higher Low.  Regardless of the outcome, traders have curled back into their balls for now.

Midcap Index

Description: This is the playground for most traders.  It’s widely excepted that the top tier Crypto have already made most of their explosive moves but that is not the case in the land of the Mids.  The Mids make a wide variety of projects from L1’s like Algorand to ad seeking marketing like BAT.

Mids are in the exact same boat as the Majors.  The price action or the candle formations are nearly identical across the board.  Candle for candle, they are all doing the same thing.  That means the Mids took the same level of resistance as the Majors and they all failed at the same time, on the same day.  Mids will eventually get drained before Majors tho as their liquidity on confidence from investors is not at all the same compared to things like Ethereum and BNB.

Shitcoin Index

Description: What market in the world can you label a basket of assets and call them SHIT?  Only Crypto baby!  The SHITperp is your view through the window of our beloved Shitcoins.  These represent 50 coins that have relatively low market cap but still have stand out projects.  Coins like MANA, in and of itself is actually a great project with a bright future but its market cap deems it as Shit.  THETA, CHZ, ENJ, HBAR, ZEN, etc.  These projects are actually good projects with good fundamentals, so they skew the balance sheet a bit because these are not exactly the Shitcoins that some other people talk about when they talk about Shitcoins!

Two weeks ago the Shitcoins got in line with the Majors and the Mids.  Their action is a bit different as Shitcoins take the hardest dumps of anything in Crypto.  Their recent low on Monday was the only of the three that actually broke the previous low from the week before.  This is not unusual as Shitcoin do pump the hardest and they do dump the hardest as well.  

Weekly Movers

If I showed you the Top 50, you’d cry.  Almost the entire PAS was red and not pink.  That being said, the further down the list we go, the more oddballs start coming out of the woodworks.  ZRX and DCR about the only standouts in this entire list.  When a coin only has very low trading volume coupled with a very low MCAP, it only takes one whale to go in there and declare the market his own.  If he wants it to pump 500%, he literally just presses the button.  If he wants to destroy the market altogether, he simply presses Market Sell.  Those coins have their own risks as well as their own strategies to play.  

Don’t attempt to trade those types of coins unless you have the proper training and strategies to do so and even then, approach them with high risk and low capital.

What to Watch

Granted the State of the Alts has been pretty bad over the last few weeks, Monero has been very quietly making some moves in the upward direction.  Four days ago Monero has finally made the move we needed to see.  A breakout, with strength on a big candle above a major local recent high.  That candle on Monday was enough to not only break through the area but garner a retest of the local 61.8 fib.

XMR/USDT:

XMR is looking to buck the system by trending up while everything else is bleeding.  There are some important things to keep in mind here.  The local breakout on Monday came with strength.  That strength also now leaves the once resistance local 61.8 to a now supportive 61.8.  This would be an area that can get retested again.  We are looking to see a move to the previous 50% of the large move and if that breaks that zone we are looking for the larger 78.6 retracement.

The Wrap Up

The market is not exactly in a good place.  Geopolitical action, taxes, endless Bitcoin confusion… the list goes on and on.  The point is this, if there is not a great setup on a great coin, then there really is no need to force a trade.  We like to take trades that fall in line with trends and that have a substantial amount of confluence to be able to make that trade.  That being said, we can only trade what the market gives us and right now, the market is not giving us much.

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