The State of the Alts – 03-31-22

The Global View

Top Left: Bitcoin Dominance – Daily
Top Right: Altcoin Index – Daily
Bottom Left: Midcap Index – Daily
Bottom Right: Shitcoin Index – Daily

Above we can see a snapshot of the entire Crypto market broken down into four very specific charts.  The overall Bitcoin Dominance chart shows you how much of the total market cap belongs to Bitcoin and therefore it also tells you how much of the market belongs to Altcoins.

Another Wild Week in the markets and this time for some actual gains!  Alt and Mids found there 200 EMA and responded perfectly – with resistance.  However – the leader of the pack – drum roll please………..The Shitcoins!  All of this while Bitcoin actually made some decent gains and broke $46K.  Today of course looks more like a retest down to $44,600 but that can be considered healthy in an uptrend.  Let’s Go!

Altcoin Index

Description: Each asset in the Altcoin Index is weighted the same.  This gives a good look at a basket of higher profile and higher MCAP coins. 

Altcoins or often called, the Majors, saw some aggressive and respectable price action over the course of the last week.  Most of them are down because of the action today but even with todays losses we still have most in the green over the last 7 days of trading.  Resistance came from the 200 EMA as we talked about so there is no surprise there.  We look for a pullback to the 20 or previous support and then the real test comes in.  Do we break the 200 or do we fail and call it a day?

Midcap Index

Description: This is the playground for most traders.  It’s widely excepted that the top tier Crypto have already made most of their explosive moves but that is not the case in the land of the Mids.  The Mids make a wide variety of projects from L1’s like Algorand to ad seeking marketing like BAT.

Mids are so similar in action to Alts that there isn’t much to discuss here.  Nearly the same exact action on the Mids as we saw on Alts.  A push to the 200 EMA, 4 times took resistance at the 200 and then large downward action wiping away the previous 3 days of gains.  Again, we look for support near the 20 or previous horizontal support and then we wait to see if we get a push through the 200 or another failure.

Shitcoin Index

Description: What market in the world can you label a basket of assets and call them SHIT?  Only Crypto baby!  The SHITperp is your view through the window of our beloved Shitcoins.  These represent 50 coins that have relatively low market cap but still have stand out projects.  Coins like MANA, in and of itself is actually a great project with a bright future but its market cap deems it as Shit.  THETA, CHZ, ENJ, HBAR, ZEN, etc.  These projects are actually good projects with good fundamentals, so they skew the balance sheet a bit because these are not exactly the Shitcoins that some other people talk about when they talk about Shitcoins!

There is something that is just funny about Shitcoins.  They always make me laugh.  Because Shitcoins notoriously have smaller markets and less liquidity, they are the easiest to pump.  ZIL had a 75% Daily candle the other day.  WAVES had a 100% move over the course of a few days.  The good news is that it all starts here – like a cycle.  Pump the Shitcoins, make some profit and move to the midcaps.  Pump the midcaps, make some profits and move to the Majors.  At that point, the retail investors either follow and we have a run or they don’t and we sell off to new yearly lows.  Either way, it’s exciting.

Weekly Movers

Some good ol fashioned classics making some moves this week.  ZIL, GTO, VTHO, WAVES, DGB, CELR, XVG, MITH and VET.  If you have been in this space a little while, you will recognize these culprits.  Now, trading these guys are much different then trading BTC, ETH or BNB but they can be traded nonetheless.  Care should be taken of course.  We mentioned WAVES two weeks ago and that made some killer moves.  AVAX also had a solid run of about 25% to $100.  We look forward to seeing how the market shakes out after todays price action with Bitcoin.

What to Watch

We are back to focusing on WAVES this week.  Let’s take a look.

WAVES/USDT:

WAVES is very interesting right now.  After a 265 day – 82% drop – WAVES was able find support.  About $9 was the area that propped price up from January to March and then things got a little heated up.  After the breakout of the long downtrend, WAVES went on to retest it’s local high from May which was indeed it’s ATH.  Without any major resistance, WAVES went on to push it’s 1.618 Fib extension and was met with resistance. Now, as dramatic as it may seem, we are looking to a 38.2 or a 50% retracement from the new ATH.  This would give time for WAVES to cool down and let traders take profits.  If this happens, being that this was already a very good run, we look for continuation in the uptrend.  Levels for Support look to be $42 and $36.  We will have a close eye on these levels over the next days/weeks.

The Wrap Up

There is a chance that we are beginning a reversal here Market Wide.  That would be welcomed amongst everyone in the Crypto communities.  It starts with a few outliers and then when no one is looking – everything starts breaking local levels and they all start flipping resistance into support.  Be very aware of what is happening over the next few weeks as there may be a lot of opportunities knocking at the door.

The other things to remember is there will be a lot of fakeouts.  Coins that try to pump but fail and turn into a bad trade over and over again.  Not everything will get a good move unless we actually enter a new Bull Run – for now – be very selective.

 

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