The State of the Alts – 03-24-22

The State of the Alts - 03-24-22

The Global View

Top Left: Bitcoin Dominance – Daily
Top Right: Altcoin Index – Daily
Bottom Left: Midcap Index – Daily
Bottom Right: Shitcoin Index – Daily

Above we can see a snapshot of the entire Crypto market broken down into four very specific charts.  The overall Bitcoin Dominance chart shows you how much of the total market cap belongs to Bitcoin and therefore it also tells you how much of the market belongs to Altcoins.

It is absolutely amazing what a week can do.  Last week we started to see some good moves on Alt but not enough to tart getting excited a everything was just pushing into resistance but now, in the last few days, all major indexes have broken resistance.  This is not the first time this has happened and we will cover that in more detail for each index below but this is definitely something to keep your eye on moving forward!

Altcoin Index

Description: Each asset in the Altcoin Index is weighted the same.  This gives a good look at a basket of higher profile and higher MCAP coins. 

Altcoin Index is ramping up and this is a great sign for things to come.  We are currently seeing ADA up 38% over the last 7 days.  ETH is tickling 11% over the last week.  These are not small numbers, especially considering their Market Caps and their positions in the Majors.  We look for somewhat smooth sailing until we near the 200 EMA which is currently sitting at 4023.

Midcap Index

Description: This is the playground for most traders.  It’s widely excepted that the top tier Crypto have already made most of their explosive moves but that is not the case in the land of the Mids.  The Mids make a wide variety of projects from L1’s like Algorand to ad seeking marketing like BAT.

The Midcaps have also broken their 50 EMA and look to be on pace to head straight to their respective 200 EMA.  This would put resistance near 3061.  Midcaps did recently break the 50 and failed, so we need to keep that in the back of our heads.  All things considered, some Mids are making very impressive moves through a ton of resistance.  ALGO for example pushed 30% from it’s recent lows and had to battle massive resistance on the Daily Timeframe.  This is resistance that has kept it down for months.

Shitcoin Index

Description: What market in the world can you label a basket of assets and call them SHIT?  Only Crypto baby!  The SHITperp is your view through the window of our beloved Shitcoins.  These represent 50 coins that have relatively low market cap but still have stand out projects.  Coins like MANA, in and of itself is actually a great project with a bright future but its market cap deems it as Shit.  THETA, CHZ, ENJ, HBAR, ZEN, etc.  These projects are actually good projects with good fundamentals, so they skew the balance sheet a bit because these are not exactly the Shitcoins that some other people talk about when they talk about Shitcoins!

ShitPERP is also moving just like the other two.  The break of the 50 EMA came yesterday, which is a day later than Alt or Midcaps but still came nonetheless.  Shitcoins do have horizontal resistance prior to their 200 EMA that we need to be aware of.  A zone from 6075 – 6260 can offer resistance to the Shitcoin rally.  The 200 EMA does find itself on the high side of that zone, currently sitting at 6258.

Weekly Movers

Alts are running the gambit currently and last week.  We see Majors, Mids and Shitcoins all traversing through local and long-term resistance to try to make a play and reverse the ship from any more downward action.  We are seeing some coins put in some serious moves while others are a bit more methodical about their turnarounds.  Reversals are always suspicious because of the nature of the price action that they just came from.

Very few people want to get really bullish on something that has been trending down for 5 months.  They like to see some trends form, some consolidation broken out of and some resistance flipped to support.  All these things take a ton of time.  We can start seeing the moves, so we can start reacting to the moves, we just need to be a bit more cautious at the moment. 

What to Watch

There are two coins that stand out at the moment.  One is in the midst of breaking local resistance and the other is receiving a ton of new volume.

ZEC/USDT:

ZEC has broken local resistance on the Daily.  Not only has it broke the resistance but it already came back for a solid retest.  You can see that move on the chart by looking at the Green Zone under the current price action.  ZEC is currently at resistance from an upward sloping trend.  We would like to see this area flipped to support and then we will look to see if ZEC has enough momentum to reach its 618 on the local move.

AVAX/USDT:

AXAX is one of those coins that comes up a lot – and for good reason.  AVAX was able to push right up to resistance – twice.  Two failed attempts to break $91.79 was also two available chances to sell your Longs.  AVAX does have momentum but it needs to break it’s secondary high at $98.77.  Technicals on AVAX do look good at the moment.  An overall push to $111 can be in the cards if $92 is flipped properly.

LUNA/USDT:

LUNA is another one that we have spoke about for awhile now.  The local overhead resistance has held for now but what is more bullish than anything is the buyback after the selloff.  This tells you that traders are very interested in this coin.  That interest can lead to more buy pressure which in turn would lead to more Demand and therefor, high dollar value.  We still have a target at $113 but we still have a ways to go to get there.

The Wrap Up

This is Crypto and certainly… NOTHING IS SET IN STONE… but this is the best week we have had for Alts in a very long time.  In fact, even Bitcoin is doing well at the moment by just tapping $44K in quite some time.  

Can this be a false rally?  Can this be a reversal?  Can this be a new Bull Run?  Can this be a fake out?  Can this be nothing more than Exit Liquidity as whales dump on retail once again?  YES.  It can be all of those things.  

Be careful, stay smart and look to the charts.  Trade like a robot and do not let the idea of a Bull Run or euphoria even enter your brain.  Keep it calm, keep it collected.  The great news is that we actually have something to look at again and what we are seeing so far is very good!

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