The State of the Alts – 020-02-23

The Global View

Top Left: Total Market Cap – Daily
Top Right: Total Excluding BTC – Daily
Bottom Left: Total Excluding BTC and ETH – Daily
Bottom Right: Total Market Cap – Others – Daily

The charts above represent the Market Cap of Crypto in four different ways. At first, we can see the total Market Cap of all of Crypto, and we can easily decipher if there is a trend up or down. From there, we move to the total Market Cap of all Altcoins (any coin that is not Bitcoin). The bottom two charts represent the entire Market Cap without Bitcoin and Ethereum, somewhat representing what the entire Altcoin market Cap looks like with the most significant player, Ethereum. The last chart is called Others, our closest representative of Shitcoins.

As of yesterday, all four charts are trading above their respective macro downward-sloping trendlines. OTHERS was the last to finally make a move above, and it did so while fighting off the 200 Daily EMA. January is over now, and looking back, we can see the amount of strength the month wrangled in. Momentum takes time to shift, and we are seeing some coins have explosive moves while others lie dormant until it’s their time. Traders and Investors across the board are fighting with each other about whether this is a short-term rally that will lead to more downside or whether this is the beginning of the next Bull Run. Time will tell, as none of them know for sure.


Total Market Cap - (T - 125)

Description: Total Market Cap is the figure you get when you add up the market cap of all individual coins throughout crypto. This number comes with a disclaimer, as not every single crypto is included in this list. With over 20,000 unique token protocols, not everyone is legit. There are dead coins, scam coins, and irrelevant coins that are artificially propped up to maintain some market cap. This chart, in particular, is calculated by TradingView, and the Total Market Cap comprises the Top 125 coins on the market.

TOTAL performed a perfect flip of the 200 EMA on the Daily timeframe. There were six days of resistance under the 200 EMA before a massive candle broke the level. On days four and five after the level break, the price retested the 200 Daily EMA and found support. From that point, the price has not traded below the retest level. We now have 15 days trading above the 200 EMA, and as of five days ago, the price broke the previous structure Lower-High. To make matters even better for TOTAL, the 20 EMA has now officially crossed over the 200 EMA. This does not mean we are in a Bull Market, but this does mean LONG TRADES are back on the menu.


Total Excluding BTC

Description: This chart is the Total Market Cap but without Bitcoin. The reason for this is to get a gauge on where all the other money is in Crypto if it’s not in Bitcoin. The difference between the Total Market Cap and the one excluding Bitcoin can help you understand where Bitcoins’ Dominance comes from. If the chart above was half of the Total Market Cap, we could say that Bitcoins’ Dominance in the entire cryptosphere is 50%.

As we can see from the chart, Bitcoin was a pivotal factor in breaking TOTALs 200 EMA. Without Bitcoin, the market struggled with the 200 EMA for three weeks. Because of the volatility and sideways chop, we cannot say TOTAL2 has fully achieved support status yet from the 200 EMA. To make matters a bit worse, TOTAL2 has not attained a structure break of the previous Lower-High, nor has its Daily 20 EMA crossed over its 200 EMA. This tells us that the overall market, not including Bitcoin, is not exactly primed for business, while Bitcoin itself is looking good for more upside.


Total Excluding BTC & ETH

Description: Just as the chart above excluded Bitcoin from the Total Market Cap, this chart excludes Bitcoin and Ethereum. Ethereum has made its stand for the Number One Altcoin and currently enjoys a 4X in Market Cap next to its closest competitor. This chart removes the two most prominent players from Crypto and gives us a better idea of what the actual market is doing, regardless of what the two major players are up to.

Now take away BTC and ETH; we are left with TOTAL from three weeks ago. For the last week, TOTAL3 has been fighting its respective Daily 200 EMA without success. This resistance is confluent with resistance from the local downward-sloping trendline seen in white. All other charts have been able to push through this level, but TOTAL3 only gained a close over the level yesterday on a relatively ugly-looking candle. This shows us that BTC and ETH are leading the market, and the rest o the market is struggling to stand on their own two feet. This is a reason to pause and think about the Alts your trading, as the strength in the market is coming from Bitcoin and Ethereum, not the rest of the Alt market.


Market Cap - Others

Description: In keeping with TradingView’s tradition of removing coins from their Total Market Cap, OTHERS represents coins 11-125 by Market Cap. They remove the Top 10 coins from their list of 125, and we are essentially left with the old Index we used for Midcaps. This does not precisely show us what mainstream Shitcoins are doing but rather the middle-of-the-road Mids fighting with each other to move up the list and breach the sacred T – 10.

OTHERS has officially crossed over and closed above its macro downward-sloping trendline. This is something TOTAL achieved over 60 days ago. To say Alts below the Top 10 are lagging is an understatement. This breakthrough came simultaneously while OTHERS was struggling with the 200 Daily EMA. This shows the amount of strength OTHERS has in its tank. Give it a week to three weeks, and OTHERS should be able to overcome its 200 EMA, similar to TOTAL2. 


Top 25 by Market Cap

Here we can see the price action and trends of the Top 30 in Crypto by Market Cap. On the right-hand side of the picture, you can also see the Peak Gains from the last seven days.

The Wrap Up

January was an excellent month for Crypto as a whole. If you recall, last January began a three-month rally that ended in sheer disappointment and massive downward pressure. Apples to apples – these Januaries are very different from each other, and it has nothing to do with January and everything to do with November and December leading into January.

The previous rally came after a brand new ATH in November of 2021, followed by a sell-off and a bounce. January to March marked a short-term relief rally from the plunge. All of 2022 has been a Bear Market, and we look to the previous months before this January to gain some insight and what we could be looking at.

We saw dramatic sell-offs last June. This sell-off resulted in a temporary floor. After breaking those lows and consolidating more, we have come up through those levels and gathered steam and momentum in the process. This January is NOTHING like last January. So what does that mean?

It means the ability to look into the past for a recreation of the January to March rally is invalidated. One cannot poach from the past because it’s convenient. Instead, an analyst needs to take in all the variables at play, not only on a local level but on a macro level as well. As we have stated before, the similarities between this current rally and the 2019 Swing-Fail rally are more prominent and worth investigating over the January 2022 relief bounce.

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