The State of the Alts – 02-24-22


The Global View

Top Left: Bitcoin Dominance – Daily
Top Right: Altcoin Index – Daily
Bottom Left: Midcap Index – Daily
Bottom Right: Shitcoin Index – Daily

Above we can see a snapshot of the entire Crypto market broken down into four very specific charts.  The overall Bitcoin Dominance chart shows you how much of the total market cap belongs to Bitcoin and therefore it also tells you how much of the market belongs to Altcoins.

Well, waiting until Thursday has paid off this week as Russia declares war on Wednesday night allows us to see the market reaction on Thursday.  Waiting until after 9:30 AM EST also allows us to see how the opening of the American Traditional market affects anything Crypto related.  A lot of this ties into fundamental or primitive nature of huge funds overall reaction to news and weather they have decided to de-risk or not.

Altcoin Index

Description : Each asset in the Altcoin Index is weighted the same.  This gives a good look at a basket of higher profile and higher MCAP coins. 

Overall Altcoin is taking a beating.  The nonstop downward cycle continues as the previous low was breached earlier today.  Ideally the breakout from trend would have had only a backtest and then further upside but that simply wasn’t the case.  Majors are coming up on Support and we do expect to see a reaction if we make it down there.

Midcap Index

Description : This is the playground for most traders.  It’s widely excepted that the top tier Crypto have already made most of their explosive moves but that is not the case in the land of the Mids.  The Mids make a wide variety of projects from L1’s like Algorand to ad seeking marketing like BAT.

The Mids are leading the charge as they not only broke their previous low but they have tested their Support zone.  Currently, we can see a bounce but the market is so wild at the moment that we can’t be certain it will hold.  The trend break here was sloppy at best so we look to see confirmation of reversal and a new breakout or loss of Support and further lows.

Shitcoin Index

Description : What market in the world can you label a basket of assets and call them SHIT?  Only Crypto baby!  The SHITperp is your view through the window of our beloved Shitcoins.  These represent 50 coins that have relatively low market cap but still have stand out projects.  Coins like MANA, in and of itself is actually a great project with a bright future but its market cap deems it as Shit.  THETA, CHZ, ENJ, HBAR, ZEN, etc.  These projects are actually good projects with good fundamentals, so they skew the balance sheet a bit because these are not exactly the Shitcoins that some other people talk about when they talk about Shitcoins!

ShitPERP is right in line with the Majors.  Shitcoins made another new lower low but they still have room to go in order to touchdown on Support.  Unlike the other two (Alt and Mid), Shit has been kept under the overhead resistance trendline.  We believe the horizontal resistance that was very clear on Shit was a factor in maintaining the sell pressure on these coins.

Weekly Movers

The Market is trash at the moment and with the uncertainty of War in the Global News it would not be wise to leap in blindly to any positions.  Sitting on the sidelines and allowing the market to settle is one of the best things that can be done at the moment.  While we wait, we look to our strategies, our journals and our overall trading health.  Doing these things now can help to occupy some time and allow the market to settle.

The Wrap Up

Whatever we get next we want to make sure that we are not only prepared but that we have confirmation of the next move.  There is still a potential of retesting the 50% on every alt and some even to the 618 area from the previous high.  There is even a school of thought for another full leg up and essentially continuing the macro Bull Market.  As always – time will tell.

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