The State of the Alts – 02-17-22

The Global View

Top Left: Bitcoin Dominance – Daily
Top Right: Altcoin Index – Daily
Bottom Left: Midcap Index – Daily
Bottom Right: Shitcoin Index – Daily

—Above we can see a snapshot of the entire Crypto market broken down into four very specific charts.  The overall Bitcoin Dominance chart shows you how much of the total market cap belongs to Bitcoin and therefore it also tells you how much of the market belongs to Altcoins.—

Last Friday we saw Bitcoin make a very aggressive breakout on its Dominance chart.  In turn, this made a very aggressive move Downward on all the other indexes.  Bitcoin Dominance rising can mean that traders are selling their alts, in turn – driving down their prices and their MCAP, while also Buying Bitcoin, which, is now increasing it’s value and total Market Cap.

Altcoin Index

The Altcoin Index was taking resistance on the 50 EMA for about four days before retreating back to the trendline for a retest.  The trendline did hold and support was found.  Now we can see the Index dancing around the 20 EMA while still sitting under the 50 EMA.  The support from the trendline was tested for four days and should be good enough for the Index to try another time at breaking through the 50 EMA.

Midcap Index

—Ahh, the MidCaps.  This is the playground for most traders.  It’s widely excepted that the top tier Crypto have already made most of their explosive moves but that is not the case in the land of the Mids.  The Mids make a wide variety of projects from L1’s like Algorand to add seeking marketing like BAT.—

The Midcaps had a moment where there were about to fly but then Bitcoin steps in and broke those dreams.  For three days the Mids held the line at the 50 EMA after breaking through the trend.  Unfortunately, that did not hold.  A retest of the trendline has been anything but graceful – one could say sloppy at best.  The trend continue to hold and the 50 EMA will continue to act as resistance until there is a decent push upward or a complete breakdown of the trend.

Shitcoin Index

—What market in the world can you label a basket of assets and call them SHIT?  Only Crypto baby!  The SHITperp is your view through the window of our beloved Shitcoins.  These represent 50 coins that have relatively low market cap but still have stand out projects.  Coins like MANA, in and of itself is actually a great project with a bright future but its market cap deems it as Shit.  THETA, CHZ, ENJ, HBAR, ZEN, etc.  These projects are actually good projects with good fundamentals, so they skew the balance sheet a bit because these are not exactly the Shitcoins that some other people talk about when they talk about Shitcoins!—


Shitcoins at the moment are very much in sync with the rest of the Alt Indexes.  We can see a bit of a struggle at the 50 EMA, a multi day support from the trendline and currently a dance between the 50 and the 20 EMA.  

Weekly Movers

Top 10 looking pretty dismal for the most part.  AVAX and SHIB are trying to buck the system but for the most part – things are not looking great.  As far as Trends are concerned – Daily trends are still weak or down across the board.  Again, the real outlier here is AVAX.  

With the big selloff last weak, a majority of coins have a lot of work to do just to get back to last week levels, let alone last Months levels.

What to Watch

We singled out three interesting coins this week:

AVAX

MANA

KEEP

AVAX/USDT:

AVAX has a peak move of 86% over the last 26 Days.  Earlier the market was correcting and AVAX took a sizeable hit but this may be a decent opportunity now that $76.44 has been broken, tested and confirmed as support.  We look for AVAX to push its local 618 that would bring AVAX to around $111.  Short-term trend looks good but trading below the current upward sloping trend would be reason to avoid.

MANA/USDT:

MANA is in a similar situation as AVAX but MANA actually pushed for over 108% in only 18 Days.  We can see there was a bit of a struggle last week and so far for the last two days but this could be a buying potential to at least the 50% of the larger move.  This would mean we can see MANA back at $3.80 with the potential to go further if the momentum is good.  

KEEP/USDT:

KEEP is an interesting one.  There is not an amazing amount of liquidity on this one but there is still several hundred Million, which is more than enough for most traders.  A potential retest of this lower trendline could send KEEP up to a potential breakout of the larger overhead trendline.  If that is the case then we are looking for the 618 at about $0.90.

The Wrap Up

The market definitely has been hit hard with some coins already down 70-80% from there recent ATH’s.  Yes, we are trending down but that doesn’t mean we won’t see some outliers here and there.  Bitcoin still has a very good chance to turn things around, whether they are temporary or not.  Those movement can influence the entire crypto market.  Two eyes on the action at the moment as one day can change everything for the entire Alt catalog.  

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