The State of the Alts – 01-12-23

The Global View

Top Left: Total Market Cap – Daily
Top Right: Total Excluding BTC – Daily
Bottom Left: Total Excluding BTC and ETH – Daily
Bottom Right: Total Market Cap – Others – Daily

The charts above represent the Market Cap of Crypto in four different ways. At first, we can see the total Market Cap of all of Crypto, and we can easily decipher if there is a trend up or down. From there, we move to the total Market Cap of all Altcoins (any coin that is not Bitcoin). The bottom two charts represent the entire Market Cap without Bitcoin and Ethereum, somewhat representing what the entire Altcoin market Cap looks like with the most significant player, Ethereum. The last chart is called Others, our closest representative of Shitcoins.

Well, well, well. Lookie what we got here… For those of you paying attention to the last two weeks, you’ll know the market has been heating up. The obvious question is, “How long will it last?” To which the only proper reply is, no one knows. That being said, the charts below will help show the strengths and weaknesses in the overall Altcoin market and how healthy this particular move is.

 

Total Market Cap - (T - 125)

Description: Total Market Cap is the figure you get when you add up the market cap of all individual coins throughout crypto. This number comes with a disclaimer, as not every single crypto is included in this list. With over 20,000 unique token protocols, not everyone is legit. There are dead coins, scam coins, and irrelevant coins that are artificially propped up to maintain some market cap. This chart, in particular, is calculated by TradingView, and the Total Market Cap comprises the Top 125 coins on the market.

First up, TOTAL. Right off the bat, there are two essential things to call out. Number one is the break of the 20 and 50 Daily EMAs. Number two is that as of yesterday, TOTAL was able to trade higher than its very local previous high. This means the Double Top is no longer an issue. Another callout here is that the momentum has increased so much that the price was able to trade above that previous high without crossing the 20 over the 50 EMAs. Generally speaking, the cross would happen first, and traders would start looking to trade positions, but here, there has not been enough time for that. A real bullish sign is a crossover, yet we are nearly halfway to testing the 200 EMA. All things considered, the 200 EMA will likely bring massive rejection, potentially enough to spiral the market much lower. 

 

Total Excluding BTC

Description: This chart is the Total Market Cap but without Bitcoin. The reason for this is to get a gauge on where all the other money is in Crypto if it’s not in Bitcoin. The difference between the Total Market Cap and the one excluding Bitcoin can help you understand where Bitcoins’ Dominance comes from. If the chart above was half of the Total Market Cap, we could say that Bitcoins’ Dominance in the entire crypto sphere is 50%.

With Bitcoin out of the picture, we see the same strength as TOTAL. This tells us that it is not a Bitcoin-only rally, as the entire market is benefiting from the recent action. The difference with TOTAL2 is that it needed to climb out from the depths of its support zone. No easy task, especially while fighting with its 20 and 50 EMAs. TOTAL2 is now in a great position, above support, the 20 and 50 EMAs, and the recent local high.

 

Total Excluding BTC & ETH

Description: Just as the chart above excluded Bitcoin from the Total Market Cap, this chart excludes Bitcoin and Ethereum. Ethereum has made its stand for the Number One Altcoin and currently enjoys a 4X in Market Cap next to its closest competitor on the list. This chart removes the two most prominent players from Crypto and gives us a better idea of what the actual market is doing, regardless of what the two major players are up to.

Now, what do all Altcoin Degens want to know? What does the market look like when you take away Bitcoin and Ethereum? Well, good news and bad news. Clearly, BTC and ETH are running the tables at the moment, but some junior coins are also making a statement. The issue with TOTAL3 is the zone that it’s currently trading in. That is the bad news. This entire area is resistance. The good news is 4-fold tho.

1 – Trading above 20 EMA

2 – Trading above 50 EMA

3 – Trading above the macro downward-sloping trendline

4 – Trading near the halfway point of the resistance zone, with momentum

 

Market Cap - Others

Description: In keeping with TradingView’s tradition of removing coins from their Total Market Cap, OTHERS represents coins 11-125 by Market Cap. They essentially remove the Top 10 coins from their list of 125, and we are essentially left with the old Index we used for Midcaps. This does not precisely show us what mainstream Shitcoins are doing but rather the middle-of-the-road Mids that are fighting with each other to move up the list and breach the sacred T – 10.

And everyone’s favorite… OTHERS. Stripping away the Top-10 reveals strength in Shitcoins. That is good news for Alts. OTHERS is in a similar situation as TOTAL except for one key element. OTHERS still remains below its overall macro downward-sloping trendline. This coincides perfectly with its 200 EMA, and we could potentially see a violent selloff for these coins. 

 

Top 25 by Market Cap

Here we can see the price action and trends of the Top 25 in Crypto by Market Cap. On the right-hand side of the picture, you can also see the Peak Gains from the last seven days.

Litcoin and Monero continue to lead the pack as far as trends are concerned. This was mentioned last week as well. ETH, ATOM, and APE are being added to that shortlist. We are in an area that can fail at any moment and with little capital persuasion to trade carefully.

 

The Wrap Up

Everyone loves a Green Market. Unfortunately, there may be an expiration on this rally. The world is calling for relief, which is what this rally looks like—a relief rally. Money can be made if wise during this move. Never discount a trend because of outside influence. If something is trending, then it is trending. Whether it agrees with the overall bias or not makes no difference at all. The more significant trend is still down, but the daily trend is shifting.

This looks pretty similar to 2019, and that run up to $14K after falling for a year from its ATH near $20K. That was a run-up from nearly $3K. That was also a Swing-Fail, and the price dropped all the way to $4200 a few months later. That being said, money was to be made on the rise and money to be made at the 618 rejection.

 

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