The Bulls Are FIRED UP

Will the 8-Year ETF Deliver as Promised?

The Brothers over at Gemini started things off back in 2013 when they filed for the first Bitcoin ETF.  That was back when Bitcoin was considered scary fake internet money that was only good for buying drugs on the dark web.  The SEC swiftly denied that ETF from ever coming to life.  But it set into motion an 8-year fiasco from which, when all the dust settled, many different hands would be involved and many different companies would have submitted their own applications.

In truth – BITCOIN has not changed a bit.  The Bitcoin from 2013 is the same Bitcoin in 2021 and although there may be some slight upgrades to the code, we can say there were no changes in the fundamentals of what Bitcoin actually is.  

ProShares won the first ETF iteration and of course, it’s in the form of Futures Contracts.

These will help investors gain some exposure to Bitcoin while not directly holding the actual Bitcoin themselves.  Once again we skirt around the issue of actual ownership and handling but that is a different story altogether.

The thought here is that these contracts will settle in Bitcoin and therefore there will need to be some Buying and Selling come settlement time.  Expect a surge of volatility during expiration.

The ticker is set at BITO and the current price as of the announcement was set at $40 a share.

The current exposure value is just shy of $20 Million.

There is no set Start Time and the SEC has not actually officially announced the ETF but by law, they do not have to.

Supercycle?

By definition, Bitcoin is just too young to be eligible for a Supoercycle but that does not mean that it is NOT in the middle of a Supercycle.  A Supercycle is essentially when the price of an asset rises, which causes more investors to notice and in turn buy, which then further increases the pressure on the buy-side while the sell-side has no way to fill all the demand.  This in turn raises the price of the asset even more and so on and so on and so on.  It’s the world’s best positive feedback loop for assets.

The problem is, it’s usually decades-long and Bitcoin is a pretty young pup when all things are considered.  Can we look back in 20 years and say Bitcoin was in a Supercycle from early 2017?  Probably.  but we won’t know until we get there.

In the meantime, we focus on the day-to-day and the near future as that is where the money is made.  If you simply want to buy Bitcoin and hold it until it hits $1M, by all means, do so but don’t call yourself a Trader!

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