Happy New Year Analytics

The Big Day only happens once a year

Bitcoins Birthday is January 3rd – well, the Genesis Block at least.  No one really knows whether this was scheduled this way on purpose or it was an accident.  We do know about the reference to the Newspaper on January 3rd which goes on to mention another Bank Bailout, reiterating why Bitcoin exists in the first place.  Be that as it may, January 3rd is awfully close to Jan 1st.  

The question then becomes this:

Does a Global Market such as Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency as a whole, see any sort of pattern during a holiday that is celebrated in every country in the world, every hour on the hour, for 24 hours?

Well… Let’s find out.

Bitcoin logarithmic view

Above is the logarithmic view of Bitcoin over the last 10 years.  This data is not pulled from a single source but instead from the Index.  It allows for a bit more of a smoothed result so to speak, lessoning the chances of anomalies from a single exchange.

The Log view is important to refer back to from time to time.  It can really put into perspective just how well Bitcoin has done since birth.

The Data

The Numbers:

12-31-2010 – 0% move
12-31-2011 – 11.16% UP
12-31-2012 – 0.45% UP
12-31-2013 – 0.47% UP
12-31-2014 – 3.70% UP
12-31-2015 – 1.29% UP
12-31-2016 – 0.95% UP
12-31-2017 – 9.45% UP
12-31-2018 – 3.62% DOWN
12-31-2019 – 0.68% DOWN
12-31-2020 – 0.32% UP
12-31-2021 – UNKNOWN (currently up 1.85%)

The Results?

No real pattern emerging here.  That is always unfortunate from an analytical point of view.  We can clearly say that the UP days have outweighed the DOWN days.

We can also say that the moves have been quite low with the exception of two data points.  Six of the eleven data points have had a move under 1%.  

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